MLB Run Differential Stories

A Key Stat to Follow Can be Run Differential

It is a simple and basic number. Run differential is the value of runs scored minus runs given up. It is a measure most often used to identify the strength of MLB teams. It can be applied to other sports like football and basketball, but for sure it is a useful measure in MLB. Teamrankings.com has a valuable way to see the data. I am posting their complete Run Differential list below.

Their list shows the total season, Last3 games played, Home games, Away games and what they in 2017. If you knew nothing about the MLB season, you could look at this reports and know who the haves and have-nots are quick. There are 2 teams over 200+ runs and 5 teams over 100+. There are also almost 2 teams -200 runs and there are 6 teams that are -100+! This chart can identify recently hot teams like LA Dodgers who have +20 runs in the last 3 games. It can show you some extreme variances like HOU. The Astros are +200 and +153 Away. It is astonishing to see that they are 76.5% more run differential away from home! Identifying these kinds of situations can lead to investing opportunities. HOU plays SEA today in Seattle. HOU has an extreme variance away and SEA is -33 at home which is 19th ranked in MLB. It shows just how far ahead of SEA that HOU really is. This creates an expected value positive. When investing, that is all we are trying to find. The more situations we have positive expected value, the more chances of winning our investments.

It is also cool to see how teams are doing one year to the next. A couple of examples are the SD Padres, WSH Nationals, and CIN Reds. Both CIN and SD are improved and WSH has become worse. Last season SD was the worst with -212 but now are only -120. That is nearly a 100 run improvement. CIN was -116 yet now they are only -62. Those are two more competitive with bright futures. WSH, on the other hand, is nearly 100 runs worse than last season. 

I would recommend spending some time analyzing run differential to see if you can find anything that is worthy of making investments.

Sports Gambling Series: A Gambler's Resposnibilites

No matter how you play, you have responsibilities!

A gambler, or more specifically a sports gambler, must realize that there are responsibilities that come with the opportunity to make wagers. Now that the laws have changed opening up wagering to the rest of the USA, there will be many new players. Yes, I am sure you have heard all those winners out there pounding their chest sounding as if everybody is killing it. Certainly, a thought might be "I can too". Please note that every month for the last 4+ years the Las Vegas sportsbooks have won against the "bettor"! It is actually 57 consecutive winning months now so please don't quit your day job. Though it is true there are few that can show a consistent profit, learn from what they know and how they wager. 

First of all and most important of all. Your bankroll should be protected as much as you are trying to grow it. It is the goal to grow but that growth is a timely matter. Slow steady growth with some spurts of exceptional "runs" will get you to your goal. You should only be wagering the number of discretionary funds you have available. Do NOT ever wager dollars that are intended for living expenses. This is a Cardinal Sin! If you are selecting a handicapper to assist you with your selections, remember this, you control your bets. If you don't like the play or the amount suggested to wager, change it or eliminate it. Handicappers are a dime a dozen these days. A guy goes on a run for a week then decides he has the answers and begins selling services. Don't be the guy paying for advice from that kind of service. There are very reputable handicappers out there. Every service does NOT fit under the same umbrella. Build a relationship like you would with a stockbroker. It is virtually the same thing. A broker suggests companies to invest in and a handicapper suggests teams. The largest difference is the time required to get your result. A stock may take 6 months to see returns whereas a sporting event takes several hours. It is your money and you should spend it the way you want to. 

Learn some valuable suggestions to get started. Here is one. There are dozens of opportunities to make wagers every day which means hundreds over the course of a month. There is no reason to play every single one! Learn to be very selective. Only make wagers where you see there is an edge to the line that is given out. This is a very key element to master from the beginning of your new journey. You are not betting teams as much as you are betting against lines! Professional bettors only make wagers they view as +EV. +EV is Positive Expected Value. If you can make a line and compare it to the betting line, you might see the value to one side or the other which generates Expected Value. This is an opportunity to wager. If you only bet on +EV situations, you will over time win money wagering on sports. In truth, you will overtime win on anything you are wagering on including poker. Successful gamblers are good at math. Knowing when you have value and how much value is important. Learn to master EV! A side effect of this will limit the number of appropriate wagers you make. There should be no limit to +EV wagers meaning that however many you find, wager them all.

A key component that is often overlooked is having fun. In general, this is why you are gambling. It is fun and might put some extra dollars in your pocket. Keep things small so the stress that can come from large wagers doesn't creep in on the ability to entertain yourself with these games. Never get so invested into one wager that you are an emotional wreck. This is easier said than done but realize as we have discussed, there are many opportunities. You will learn that sports gambling will uncover many aspects of games you didn't see prior to wagering on them. You might know what a passed ball is and that they are few in occurrence, but there are more than just a couple games decided by them over the course of a season and if you are on the wrong side of one of those, it can make you crazy! Or how about a dropped fly ball or an intentional safety? Those things happen and they do affect the outcome of a wager. My advice is simple. Once the game starts, you are only along for the ride. Enjoy the ride as much as you can knowing you might be riding against the team you are riding with today tomorrow. You can't change anything, but if it is bad enough, change the channel!

As you go down your journey, practice these simple yet effective tools to get you started!

Good Luck

Scott 

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

It has become very apparent that it is time to differentiate between all the frauds and "fly by night" so-called handicappers.  Gambling Twitter has hundreds of frauds, fakes, and phonies. Let's finally put to rest all these guys by asking smart questions. It is your money! Make sure you are investing it wisely. Isn't that the purpose, to grow your bankroll?

Ask your guy "Why are we putting my money on this game? What is the Positive Expected Value? If he does not reply with some sort of percentage advantage, he is lost and making stuff up! Understanding Positive Expected Value is straightforward for Casino gambling, but a little more problematic for sports wagering. In a casino, the odds of an outcome are always known. The payout is always known, so you can easily determine if your wagering with the best of the odds. I am providing an article written by a bookmaker so the examples he uses are best to follow. When it comes to sports wagering, the outcomes are not known, so there is more room for error and interpretation. I liken it to poker odds. For example, you know what is in your hand, you know what the drawing odds are, and you know the what cards are on the table. You don't know what the other guy has, so you are only assuming his hand strength based on his actions up to this point. Knowing what you can beat will help you wager correctly in this circumstance. Sports gambling applies in a similar way. You know the bookmaker odds, you know what teams are playing, and you know the players that will impact the outcome. However, you do not know the outcome. You must find the implied probability of the outcome then compare it to the bookmakers odds. If you have Positive Expected Value, then you are putting your money in good and over time will be profitable.

Let's make a deal! From now on, you will no longer cry about being taken advantage of by these trashy fraudulent marketers. You will educate yourself. You will only utilize the true handicappers out there. You will become a better gambler!

Here is the article. 

How to Calculate And Use Expected Value

If I asked you to explain expected value and how it relates to sports betting, how much could you tell me?  My guess is, not a whole lot. Don't be concerned. You are not alone. Most people reading this article will be the same. Similar to calculating a bookmakers margins, being able to calculate expected value is something you must know how to do.

What Is Expected Value

The easiest way to understand expected value (EV) is to break it down to its simplest form. EV is a calculation used to determine whether a bet has a positive or negative profit expectation. For example, If you are playing roulette and put a $1 chip on all 36 numbers and another on zero, you will have risked a total of $37. After the spin, 36 of your bets will lose, and one bet will win. You will earn $35 of profit and get your chip back for a total of $36. A net loss of $1. If you divide your net loss of -1$ by your risk of $37, you get -1.027. The -0.027 represents a loss in cents per dollar risked. You will lose 2.7 cents per dollar bet on roulette.

Applying Expected Value to Sports Betting

For casino games where probability outcomes are known, calculating expected value is straightforward. Calculating EV in sports betting, however, can be tricky. Unlike games of chance, calculating expected value for a specific sports bet before the game starts is not possible. This is a very important point and one bettors often confuse. Because the true probabilities of outcomes are not known until the game is complete, any attempt to speculate on the EV of a sports wager would be an estimate at best. An easier way of thinking about the true application of expected value in sports betting would be to refer to it as Profit Expectation instead. Profit expectation can be used to determine the skill of a bettor using his results over an extended period of time. For example, You make 100 wagers at even money for $1 each. You end up winning 55 and losing 45 for a profit of $10. If you divide $10 by 100, you determine that you have a profit expectation of 0.1 or 10%. By comparing the probability of the outcome with the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you can determine if you have a positive profit expectation. Not all bettors with positive profit history are skilled bettors. Luck plays a large role in the success of gambling. Calculating profit expectation will tell you how much luck is influencing the true result. Knowing that you have a positive expectancy is a way to validate your methods. This is the principal of value betting at its finest. Knowing that you have a negative expectancy allows you to save yourself from continuing to chase bad wagers and promote making a change. 

Don't Be Biased When Calculating

I encourage you to go back through your wager history and gather enough data so you can determine your profit expectancy. Looking at these figures without bias can be difficult. It takes a lot to accept that luck plays a part in your results and your wins and losses are not dictated solely by your predictive ability and decisions you make. If you approach your history without bias, you will be able to identify if your betting methods will provide you long-term success, or not. Don't worry if the results are not what you want to see. Accept them for what they are and build on them. Self-awareness is important. You are the only person holding you back from changing a negative profit expectaion into a positive one.

Why we stand apart & our promise to you. #Settingthestandard #WebbieWins

Why we stand apart and our promise to you.

Odds makers are not Idiots!

Odds Makers are Not Idiots!

Major League Baseball has a unique "game" within the game aspect. A pitcher has gone thru his pregame study of the hitters he will be facing. He has charted the pitches from the prior game to get a feel for developing a strategy to get the hitters to make outs. He goes thru a pregame meeting with the catcher so they are in sync with the game plan. The hitters watch tape of their swings to make minor adjustments to improve their execution of it, then they study the pitcher on tape. They see where the release point is, they analyze his strong pitches and weak ones. They make a game plan on how to attack the pitcher. All this leads to game action, where the batter steps into the box and the pitcher receive the sign from the catcher. Then it is a matter of who executes best! 

I tell that story to tell this one. Odds Makers are extremely proficient at what they do. Their job is to be nice and friendly with the gambler but to make their casino money. That is an exceptionally fine line to walk. They have to write lines that draw action yet put themselves in profitable situations. They have to analyze numbers, data, but most important predict the future action on the games. They make adjustments to get wagers on both sides of the games but also to give them a favorable edge over the general public. Make no mistake. The sportsbook is a FOR PROFIT organization. We gamblers and handicappers have to wager the lines set by the Odds Makers. We come up with all kinds of ways to beat them. I have seen trends, systems, guessing, data analysis, computer algorithms and much more. This is the "game" within the game aspect of sports wagering.

Do not disrespect the line that is made! It has a definite purpose. Have you ever wondered why a line that was released was not a point or half a point different? There is a reason for the value it shows. The best way to beat the Odds Maker is to beat his line with yours. Your line MUST be true odds. His line is slanted to drive profit in his sportsbook. This where EV (Expected Value) can be measured. Once you learn how to make your own lines, you will be able to see through some of the smokescreens the Odds Makers put out there. Just a side note, if you are having someone else handicap games for you and make suggestions for which to wager on, they better be able to give the EV for that wager! BIG red flags should go up if they can't!

You MUST be great at team analysis and cutting-edge data analysis. Odds Makers have their "power ratings" that they base the lines on. We can find superior data and superior team analysis as edges over the Odds Makers. An edge is defined as anything that creates EV over the betting line. Once we have established those edges, we now have to get into the batter's box and take a swing at the Odds Makers' pitch. This requires us to analyze the line. What is the purpose of it? Has it moved in any direction and if so, why? Do we have any data on how much dollar volume has been wagered? This is the part where you can be the best analyst in the world and still be a losing gambler! You MUST get very proficient at reading the lines or in other terms, seeing the pitches. Ever see a batter look like a fool because of a swing and miss or get "jelly legs" due to a curveball? This is exactly what we look like when we miss our wagers! Be a tough out and know what you are doing every step of the way! Prepare better, analyze better, read the line better, and above all respect your opponent!

    

Bankroll Management

Bankroll Management

There are many aspects to gambling on sports. There are different types of sports, many types of wagers and one should be good at team analysis. There is also the number you have to beat. Remember this, novice gamblers bet teams, pro gamblers bet the best number as it provides the pro with a positive expected value (EV). The real issue becoming successful is that you can do all this right and still be a loser. One might wonder, "how is that statement true?" The answer is bankroll management. It is a Wednesday night and you have selected a "lock" can't miss game based on all the proper analysis from above. You have a great line and positive EV. However, the game is in the 3rd inning with your team ahead by 2 runs. All of the sudden the rains come pouring down producing a 2.5-hour rain delay. When the teams come back out, they both have new pitchers. Your team doesn't respond well and they end up losing the game by 1 run! There are no guarantees in sports betting. You can do everything right and still have something happen. If you properly wagered on the game, you will not take a big hit to your bankroll, but if you are like the masses,  you probably stepped way out and wagered an amount over your bankroll means and now are trying to figure out how you are going get out of this hole you find yourself in. If you want to become a successful investor in sports games, you must determine the proper strategy for managing your bankroll. This is a separate skill set that is required and one we will further discuss.

Your bankroll is defined as monies dedicated to placing your wagers on the games. It is not your rent money, not your electric bill money, nor is it you car payment money. The sole purpose of this money is to wager on games. You must first decide how much money you have for a bankroll. This should be a relatively easy task. You know how much "extra" money you have, use it to fund your bankroll. 

Now we have an established bankroll to use. We must determine the appropriate way to manage this fund. It starts by determining what kind of risk taker you are. Determining that is easier than you think. If you were to deplete your bankroll, would you be able to make a new one or would you be done gambling for awhile until you could get back in the game? Simple question, yet the answer is important. If re-establishing your account is no problem, then your first risk taker profile is high because you can always re-up at any time. If you cannot re-establish your account, then you have a low risk taker profile. Since you must play to stay in the game, you will be somewhat working backward. All of your wagers must consider your total in the account before you make them hence working backward. A couple of simple examples. Player A can re-up his bankroll and he starts with $500. He can wager 5 games at $100 each anytime he likes. Player B cannot re-up his bankroll for 5 months. He is in a position where he needs to determine what percentage of his bankroll he can afford to risk for the day so he is not in jeopardy of being out of the game. Let's say he wants to bet the same games as Player A and has the same amount of his bankroll. He may decide that 20% of his bankroll being exposed at any given time is his threshold so he can only wager $125 for the day which also means he can only put in play $25 per game. Huge difference right?

Now we have established the main risk profile of the player, we must determine the purpose of wagering in the first place. We must do this so we can then set some parameters and realistic goals. There are many reasons why we gamble on the games. Some have expendable income and want to make quick money fast, others want to establish a routine and grow their bankroll like a savings account would grow incrementally. If you are not worried about losing then wagering larger and wagering on many opportunities could be a perfect style for you. Your returns on wins will be higher but your wins will be fewer, so the idea is to win the larger bet games and the highest odds games to maximize those wins. If you are growing or grinding your account with disciplined wagers, you will have more wins but not get rich quick. Your bankroll will grow incrementally but at a higher percentage rate than in a savings account. This style will also allow you to accept any losing streaks that happen to everyone. Your results should be judged over months, not days or weeks. Just like the stock market or any other investment options, sports wagering is volatile and will have many ups and downs. Most novice wagerers find this frustrating and it generally leads to their demise.

We now have determined your bankroll and your style, so how do we establish parameters and realistic goals? Parameters are your guard rails. We utilize a strategy to best position ourselves for the least amount of loss and the most amount of profit. For the loose players with no intention of grinding out wagers, your parameters should start with maximizing results as long as you have the ability to re-up your bankroll or are a short-term player looking to score. I highly recommend looking backward from a standpoint of return. Say you have $500 in your bankroll. You may not have a specific dollar growth expectancy but you should be trying to max out your wagers. You should not be deciding which one game to make a double or nothing wager, but that is sort of what I am talking about. You should be thinking about how much money you are going make not how much money to hold back to use tomorrow, you need a guardrail around the quality of games you are wagering. Every day offers a menu of games to wager on. Remember that tomorrow offers opportunities if there is not the "step out" wager game today. For tonight's menu, maybe play smaller strung together wagers where your risk is small yet return is high. As an example, tonight play a 3 team parlay and a 2 team parlay hoping to hit both but if you win one, they will more than cover each other generating a small profit. You are strategically maximizing lesser quality to get the highest return. Keep in mind, you are not holding back and not worried about losing your bankroll. Then tomorrow, play a strategically large wager on the best game on the board to maximize that opportunity. 

It is a much more disciplined approach for the grinder type wagerer. Your wagers are always made with the intention to grow your bankroll incrementally and to minimize loss. In this scenario, we are not trying to maximize wins but to minimize loss and risk of bankroll depletion. We do this by setting limits on how much we can lose in a day and by being very selective in the wagers we make. This style will allow us to establish realistic goals which will create our guard rails. We need to understand what are realistic goals? As shown above, you can risk any amount at any time, and in the short-term outlook and make some money or often times, lose all of your money. However, if you are trying to make this a steady part-time income or full-time career, you'll need to know what that looks like. This style requires a large bankroll. We are investing a part of our bankroll each day. We find the best positive EV opportunities then make consistent "unit" wagers based on strength of value. We are making only wagers that are EV positive.We will also expect to win these wagers at a 55% rate or higher. The win rate required is 52.38%. It's the break-even rate due to 10% vigorish at the bookmaker. Maintaining this bankroll requires having 6% or less of your bankroll on wagers in action pending results at any given time. This parameter allows for losses and losing streaks without compromising the 1 unit or 2 unit scale or depletion of the bankroll. It is important to maintain the scale to overcome bad days without changing your unit sizes. The 2 unit is the max bet. It can slightly vary in value because 6% is the max as it would be most allowable in play amount, however, you may have another wager to make at the same time. In that case, you might make the 2 unit wager 4% and the 1 unit wager 2% of the bankroll thus keeping the 6% in play the guardrail. We are not risking large portions of bankroll so we won't win large portions of money. This method requires the ability to beat the number more than the breakeven rate AND the discipline to limit the number of wagers resulting in exposing our bankroll to more than 6% in action opportunities. We need only to wager on the most premium of spots in this style. This is investment style wagering where we make money over time and get a solid return on our investment.

Here are some pitfalls to avoid.

Do not make a larger percentage wager than you should. Stay disciplined to your path and style.

Do not increase unit scales or sizes until your bankroll grows proportionately.

Chasing your losses is bad behavior and a sure means to bankroll mismanagement.

 

 

Follow along. It cost zero dollars plus get a ton of MLB analysis

It doesn't matter whether you use my service for handicapping plays. If you like MLB, this is the place to be. Follow along via Telegram. Just click on the link provided
.

https://t.co/Tkgo0FX4vY

I am an MLB Handicapper specialized in Sabermetrics with a combined old-school feel for the game. If you are into terms like regression, O-Swing%, Hard hit% or SIERA, you are gonna love what I do. I assure you, I break down games and performances like no handicapper you have seen before using new school analytics. I apply that data to DFS lineups and handicapping edges! 

I have 3 blogs I write. You can get those links here:

http://insidethebattersbox.blogspot.com/

http://webbiescoffeereport.blogspot.com/

http://gamedaywsi.blogspot.com/

Many of the articles are posted into the Telegram Acct.  Nothing to lose, follow along using the Telegram link above.

MLB Regression via Game Score

Regression measured thru Game Score

What is regression and Game Score and why should it matter in handicapping? Let’s get some definitions we can work with. First is for regression. I am using the terminology of “regression to the mean”. This is copied directly from a Google search. “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Think in terms of outliers. Going in the direction more extreme than another, the outlier is not the mean (average bar). Humans are not machines and have progression and regression toward the mean. If we could gauge those “outliers”, then we could bet on those opportunities they present. Here is where Game Score comes in.

What is Game Score? The next few lines are copied directly from Fangraphs. “Game Score was originally created by Bill James to measure the quality of individual starts.” “Calculating Game Score (original or v2) is extremely simple, requiring some basic addition, subtraction, and multiplication. The original Game Score is calculated like this:

Game Score = 50 + Outs + 2*(IP Completed After the 4th) + Strikeouts – Hits – 4*Earned Runs – 2*Unearned Runs – Walks”

Game Score tries to answer the fundamental question, “how good was that start?

Fundamentally, it is important to use Game Score because the Win stat for a pitcher does not indicate the performance of the pitcher nor if the performance was above or below mean average.  Ok. So now we know what Game Score is, how to calculate it and why it is important. 

Now how do we use it? I string together the last 7 starts for a pitcher and cut them up into segments. Seven games are roughly 21% of a season and at a glance is a good representation of current performance. Here are the charts I use on my spreadsheet.

The charts on the left are the actual GSc from the past seven games. The chart on the right shows the average GSc for a segment of games. The 1^st box is last 7 games, then the last 3 games, then the last game and finally the year to date. The box GSc vs OPP is the GSc vs the team pitching against. In the example above, Graveman is 58 over his L7 which is significantly better than ytd. His last 3 and his last game also indicate he is above his ytd. The ytd is the mean. This tells me that Graveman is going to regress soon. It may not be today but other factors may lead to believe that. Such as how he fares on the road, if key hitters light him up if he struggles vs the team he is facing and so forth. I assure you though, he will regress soon. The colors in the chart reflect poor performances (green light) or great performances (yellow light). They are also great information. Getting to a mean requires outliers, and those are them. Yellow means the pitcher is like to regress back to his average mean and green means the pitcher is likely to progress to his mean. Over time, you will be able to pin down opportunities you didn’t know were even there. A Sabermetric way to way performance that predicts the future. Pretty cool!

Projections Update National League

Baseball Prospectus National Projections as 03/05

This league is much tighter than in the AL. LAD is the largest advantage of 10 games over 2nd ARI in the league. There is only 1 60 win team projected (MIA 66) so the bottom is improving. WSH has an 8 game edge and CHC a 7 game edge. They have ARI and STL as the wildcard teams. It is a very convoluted wild card race though. ARI, STL will have to contend with MIL, SF and possibly the NYM. 

There is nothing I disagree with here. I have the league taking shape the exact same way. However, I do like ARI more than most. LAD will fall back to the pack more in 2018 narrowing the margin thus giving ARI an opportunity to close in. ARI was 11-8 vs LAD in 2017. They also led the WEST with 45 wins. LAD was 3rd with 41 wins (2nd went to COL 42 wins). ARI pitching is close and LAD will need to repeat the dominance from Wood of last season. It is hard to assume he will be that good again. LAD still has the better offense but again will need to get identical strong performances from guys who were rookies in 2017. The common trend is to see some regression from those players. 

I do like STL to overtake MIL. MIL does not have the starting pitching to match up with either CHC or STL. 

As you can see above, there is not one spot in the rotation that will favor MIL. This is a concern for a team that brought in Cain and Yelich. It will also play Braun at 1B so learning a new position. They are a pitcher or two away from contending in 2018. 

SF made a huge transition in the offseason. They are much better than the worst team in MLB as they were a season ago. Yet, the "hot stove" champs are usually not the go-to team for the regular season. Remember ARI, SD, and CHW of the past few seasons. 

The NYM is the most intriguing to me. I like their new manager Mickey Callaway. I also like they have invested in the training department. They will get Syndergaard back and he is an "ACE". He will go alongside DeGrom making a solid one-two punch at the top of the staff. If they can get some offense, they might surprise some and make a run for the wildcard spots. 

Projection Updates! American League

Baseball Prospectus Updated Projections as of 03/05

Most analysts believe the AL East will be the only competitive division for the top spot in the 2018 season and I believe that as well. It is noteworthy though that these projections show the AL East to be the competitive, yet still an 8 game variance to 2nd spot. They also indicate how far it is to reach the AL Central and AL West top spots as CLE is 14 games better and HOU is 19 games better than 2nd spot. Lastly, this would indicate BOS and TAM as wildcard teams for the playoffs. 

I do agree with NYY as the front-runner and I also agree that 7-9 games will be the margin. I know many feel that JD Martinez fills the gap between the teams' offense and that is the case. However, the margin is in relief pitching. The NYY have an RP WAR of 7.2 and BOS 3.9. There is no question as to has the best bullpen. The current starting pitching is virtually even. Baseball Prospectus might see it that NYY has the better offense too, hence the 8 game margin. NYY was 11-8 vs BOS in 2017. NYY had 44 and BOS 41 wins in the AL East in 2017. Stanton is an MVP player and Martinez is maybe an All-Star player. NYY has the edge and the AL East will go through them.

I also agree that the other divisions are extremely top heavy. CLE and HOU are the best teams in those divisions and it is not even close. It would not surprise me to see 100+ wins for both of those teams. 

I do not agree with TAM projection of being a wildcard team. I believe they are more .500 type team with a downward arrow of being below that target. I am not sold on Kevin Cash as their manager. They are also worse defensively than they have been. It is hard to replace 2 starters (Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb), the face of their franchise (Evan Longoria), an All-Star from 2017(Corey Dickerson) and a rising star(Steven Souza Jr). I believe BOS will take one of the wildcard spots and MIN will take the other. I like MIN because they play in the Central. They will get 57 games versus the worst teams in the AL (19 each vs. CHW, DET, KC). Their offense is very good. If their pitching can hold up, this will be a playoff team. They will have a scheduling edge against teams like LAA and SEA. The wildcard race will be the interesting watch in the AL. 

Chicago Cubs Team Preview from my preseason book

Chicago Cubs

2017 92-70 1st division | Playoff team went to NLCS lost to LAD in 5 games

2017 HOME 48-33 | AWAY 44-37

2017 BATTING WAR 26.7 PITCHING WAR 15.9 TOTAL WAR 42.6

2018 Projections: BAT WAR 27.3 | PIT WAR 22.6 | TOT WAR 49.9

Their WAR total ranked 5th but that is a misleading headline. Their offense was 10th and their defense was #1. WAR does consider defense unless listed as OFF. As they were the defending champs, they got off to a slow start. In fact, they were .500 (40-40) as of July 1st. Their offense finished 4th in runs scored. They ranked 9th in HRs and 10th in IOS (extra base hit gauge). They did find ways to get on base. Their wOBA was 5th and BB% was 2nd! Their bat avg was 16th so those BBs really helped. Their largest weakness was baserunning and clutch hitting. Their rank in BsR was 24 and -6.6 runs to average. They ranked 26th in CLUTCH hitting. The starting pitching was not like their championship year. They were 3rd in 2016 but fell to 10th last season. The ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05.

They were 19th in HR/9. They were bad in the CLUTCH like their hitters. They ranked 27th. The bullpen ranked 14th which is up from 19th of their championship season. The ERA in the pen was 3.80 ranking 6th.

They were led by Kris Bryant. He delivered 6.7 WAR and was in the MVP conversation. He led with 111 runs scored and 146 wRC+. He batted .295 and was a positively rated defender too. Anthony Rizzo earned 4.0 WAR. All-Star caliber. He led with 32 HRs and 109 RBI. He a negatively rated defender. Wilson Contreras provided 3.2 WAR in his 1st full season as C. He too like most Cubs, is a positive defender as well. Javier Baez earned 2.2 WAR. He was versatile in playing 4 positions (1B, 2B. SS, 3B). Ian Happ produced 1.8 WAR. He hit 24 HRs but had a high K% of 31.2%. Addison Russel productivity was cut by more than half. He earned 1.4 in 2017, but 3.9 in 2016. He is more of a defender, but 2017 was his worst so far.

The 2018 offense will be led by the same guys. Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Bryant again MVP quality and Rizzo with Contreras All-Star worthy. Russell projects to have a resurgence. He is expected to have 2.8 WAR. Jayson Heyward shows up with 2.2. Happ with an improved 2.1. Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist will get some at-bats, but it looks like they will be sharing roles. Baez will be the 2B for the Cubs so Zobrist will play some LF.

The pitchers were led by Jon Lester and his 2.7 WAR. 4 of their main 5 were above 2.0 but no one into 3.0. Big time pitchers get well over that mark. Lester started 32 games but ended up with 4.33 ERA. Kyle Hendricks made 24 starts due to injury. He had 2.5 WAR and had the lowest ERA of 3.03. He is tough with guys on base. His LOB% was 82.5%. Jake Arrieta made 30 starts and led with 14 wins. He turned in 2.4 WAR. Newcomer Jose Quintana gave them 2.0 WAR in only 14 starts. CHI was 10-4 in games he started. He swept September going 5-0 with an ERA of 2.51! John Lackey

made 30 starts. His WAR was 0.5. Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler picked up games when the others were out.

Now for some fun. The offseason in CHI has not been quiet. They signed Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood! Quintana projects at 4.8 WAR, Darvish with 4.2 WAR. They immediately get 2 top of the rotation guys. Lester projects at 3.7 WAR. This sets up great matchups for their guys too. Most teams will not see this caliber starter at the #3 spot regardless of which one of these guys fill that role. Now throw in Hendricks as the #4! Very tough here. Chatwood is an improved #5 spot too. Plus, Montgomery can spot start when needed. In the bullpen, we have a new closer in Brandon Morrow. He replaces Wade Davis. He projects at 1.3 which is higher than Davis 1.1 from last season. Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson get more of the games this year. Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop are still there and will pitch often, but Maddon has new toys and will use them. 2018 pitching is deep and plentiful with talent!

The 2017 CHI won 92 games. The sabermetric standings suggest they lost 4 games more than they should have to make 96 wins a more accurate total. CHI was +127 runs in Run Differential. BOS was +117 with 93 wins. The Run Differential does not support the extra games. We will adjust down to 94 wins as the most accurate gauge of performance in 2017. The projections call for 92 or 89 wins. I believe this pitching staff has dramatically improved therefore 89 wins is too low. I also can not seem them worse than last year final record of 94 wins. The division is improved with STL adding hitters and MIL rising with young talent. Based on competition, I can see how we should not be overly optimistic. I do expect CHC to be the team to beat. My team wins total for CHC is 96 wins.

Page 96

C2C Sports Investment Pricing

c2c Sports Investments 

Sign Up For Baseball Now

1 Week (7 days of service) $50
1 Month (30 Days of service) $149
3 Months of service $300
1 Season (MLB, Football are 2 seasons) $450

Exclusive Telegram Channel
LIVE Pericope shows
Twitter channel for VIP clients
Daily game analysis
Videos, Audios, and Write-ups
MLB Specialist
Sabermetric Analyst

for Package sign-ups, DM @c2cScottWebb

Some Random Baseball talk for 2018

Some Random Baseball Talk

• Divison Discussion
• Season Win Totals plays
• Pre Season is not my thing

2018 MLB Preview is here and it's FREE!!

This year the preview is 129 pages of information. Every team has a review and a preview. This will accommodate a veteran MLB person who is into everything and plus accommodates  the person somewhat new to MLB betting as well

• There are Divisional breakdowns, Conference Capsules and Handicapping notes. 
• Every team has a Season Total Wins expectation
• There is plenty of Sabermetric analysis 
• Some new data points shared like Productive Outs and power/speed, base running
• A section at the end with some Do's and Don'ts in MLB betting
• There are definitions so you can easily follow along with the material

Please follow my Twitter handle @c2cScottWebb. I write 3 blogs (like this one), make videos of game analysis, LIVE Periscope shows, write up detailed analysis, post interesting an information, make timely comments. My blogs are Inside the Batter's Box (http://insidethebattersbox.blogspot.com/), Webbies Coffee Report (http://webbiescoffeereport.blogspot.com/) and Game Day (http://gamedaywsi.blogspot.com/)

To get your copy, please use Twitter and DM your request.
Or you can enter our Telegram Site using the link below

https://t.co/Tkgo0FX4vY

USA Today 2018 MLB on 02/06/18

Well, let's see what these look like compared to what I release. It will be hard to argue with their division leaders. I supposed New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox could be a tight race to the end and it is possible that Boston could win the East as they did in 2017. The West is HOU again but where do the Wild Cards come from. MIN has the easiest path due to their Division and getting to play White Sox, Royals, and Tigers. However, I am not sold on their starting pitching as of now. This shows BOS and MIN or LAA as Wild Card teams. 

Again, I think the National League Division leaders are hard to argue with. They have MIL and STL or COL as Wild Cards. At first glance, COL is not assured of a 2nd place finish in the West let alone the Wild Card, so I think they may be overvalued here. I like what SF has done and a 4th place spot in the West may be selling them short. I am NOT sold on MIL this season as I was last. They have improved their offense, defense and have a stellar bullpen. The issue for them is "cream of the crop" starting pitching. It will be hard to beat the "Aces" in the National League when they don't have any. 

More to come....previews will begin soon. Good to talk MLB!

It is a MUST to have analytics in your handicapping in todays game breakdowns

"Trends don't pay the rent."

Sports statistics has advanced to a point where information is a gambler,s weapon to exploiting Vegas odds makers. A perfect example of this is from this weekend NFL games. Specifically, the Pittsburgh and Jacksonville game. 

The narrative that Pittsburgh was revenge minded and would avenge their loss where they threw 5 interceptions and were routed 30-9 was great story line. In fact, there were many trends favoring this theory. For example, a favorite of 7 or 7.5 in the Divisional round, is 20-5 straight up, PIT is 11-1 against the spread at home revenging an upset loss and the Jaguars are 2-6 when they allow more than 10 points. Here we see a certain steering towards betting on PIT. It was also assumed that PIT has a good to above average defense that would stifle a Jaguars offense that scored 10 points in each of their last two games. Makes a compelling case when you consider how good PIT offense is and Antonio Brown was going to be back. If you followed this narrative, you would not be the only one. In fact, 71% of 2.37 million dollars were wagered on PIT! My clients were on Jacksonville and the over. 

Analytics led the way for the correct choice. The only true issue was trust. The true evaluation was how to gauge the PIT defense as it was a far below average group and to assess the Jacksonville offense as it was hidden for 2 straight games. The analytics showed that PIT was dead last in broken tackles allowed, ranked 30th in 2nd level yards, ranked 30th in allowing open field yards, they fell 18 spots in pass defense from week 9 when Shazier was injured, they were ranked dead last in red zone defense against the run, and they allowed over 29 points per game over their last four games to QBs such as Hundley, Flacco and Kizer. The writing was on the proverbial wall about this defense. Analytics showed the appropriate way to look at this game. The issue was trusting the information because the offense was so dreadful for Jacksonville the past couple of games.

Analytics is the clear advantage to getting the right understanding of the teams. It is imperative to know how to understand their meaning, use the information to get a clear picture assessing the teams, and most important, how to use the information correctly. Due to the excess of this data, it is also extremely valuable to use the correct data. For example, there is not much value to assess a TEs ability to impact a game if he is not a major part of the their game plan, that should be used for fantasy points. The analytics applies even more so to baseball. 

There are many new terms and statistics for analysis of MLB. Selecting the appropriate analytics is extremely valuable in this area. There are so many great statistics that can be used and I am sure there will be more to come. Some lead to understanding how a player gets better or worse but those aren't the ones that are predicting, guiding and correlating game outcomes. This where you must spend a large part of your time. Exit velocity does not tell you who to put a wager on! It might tell you who to include in your DFS lineup though. 

Either become a study of this information or hire someone who is astute in their ability to decipher and apply the information in ways that generate favorable wagering opportunities. It is a complex area but it is the future of sports. The ability to tie that information into sports gambling is not only here, but if you are not, you are behind. 

As always, good luck.  

The line moves and is HUGE news!

There is a common thought that Sports Books make a betting line to get equal wagering action on both the favorite and the underdog. In many cases, this is absolutely correct. However, there are several "spots" where the Books are not as concerned about their liabilities on one side of the game and have identified this spot where it wants to make money rather than split it. We can discover these spots and "follow the money", but more importantly, see what reaction the Book takes regarding their line move. We must understand that no matter how good of game breakdown analysts we are, we must also break down the line moves based on the money flow.

There are websites, tweets from sportsbook directors and postings of these readily available on a daily basis. It is important to find one and use it. Get used to the idea that not all games are intended to have equal action and sportsbooks DON'T lose money. Sure they may get beat a game or two, but over the daily slate of games, they will win or they wouldn't be in business. A good follow on Twitter is David Purdum. He analyses Vegas books daily and posts how much Vegas casinos win monthly. It is public record.

How do we identify these spots? An example looks like this. Alabama played Georgia for the NCAA Championship. The line opened -3 and quickly went to -4. Normal move based on money. However, money continued to come in on ALA at over 60% yet no move to -4.5. Why? It is because the books were satisfied with their liability and didn't mind the money to continue to come in on ALA. It really isn't that simple in this case due to teaser bets, future bets and parlay bets, but it is the gist. When the books don't respond to moving the liability they hold, they believe one side will prevail and they will make money as opposed to splitting the money. It also happens the opposite way. Let's say the money is rolling in on an underdog at +7. But the book doesn't reduce the line to +6.5. It means they like the money coming in on +7 and want more of it. Again, it is not quite this simple, but it is what to look for. The book wants to make money on some games and on others, they split their liability. 

As much time as we put into handicapping games, we must also get proficient at handicapping the line moves based on the flow of the money! When the book shows a bias toward a side of a game, it is the BEST choice to side with the book! Remember, they make money every week and every month.

Leading sports gamblers into false expectations needs to STOP now!

This Twitter sports gambling thing is amazing. There are guys with 50 unit plays, something called a Double MAX play, Play of the Year every week and much more non-sense. Sports gambling is as much of a daily grind as it is to try to play poker for a living. There is no such thing as a Double MAX play. There are hundreds of options on Twitter. The best Twitter provides is a connection to players and cappers. The worst Twitter provides are expectations of easy money that are so outrageous one wonders how anyone doesn't see through it.

It is simple. Only bet games where you believe there is a defined edge. The phrase "pros bet numbers and Joes bet teams" is pretty accurate. There is also the adage that "trends don't pay the rent" which is also accurate. The number of games to wager depends on how many edges you find. Pro sports bettors do not play every game, nor make many parlay wagers nor do they play all these crazy teaser options. You won't find them "buying the hook" or any of this other crap. I saw a service provide a "Play of the Year" and told their clients to buy the hook! Pro sports bettors find spots where they believe they have a positvie EV (expected value). They play every one of those no matter if it is 6 games on one day and only 1 game on another. Put your money in good. 

Once your money is in good, the expectation is to lose 40% of your wagers or 45% of them! Wow. The truth "is what it is". Sure there are runs of greatness and runs of horror, but long term daily wagering you will lose somewhere around 40% of your wagers and if that were to happen, you are an outperfomer! 60% wins or higher over a year with hundreds of wagers is excellent. So even with the best scenarios, this is what pros expect. Hence, they don't grade things in units! It is not a game to collect units then claim a unit is worth "x" dollars to show how much winning they do. Pros are looking at the dollars period. Most pros are using a flat betting aproach where there are two options. Option A is a standard wager of X dollars and Option B which is an enlarged wager but consistent to their bankroll. For example, a standard wager might be 2% of their bankroll and an enlarged wager might be 4% of their bankroll.

Here is a concept. If you put your money that you wager on sports in a savings account in a bank (you should put your money into a cd or something not a savings account), how much money would you gain by the end of a season? Let's try it with a season like football due to the large number of -110 wagers you would have. Just looked it up and you can get 1.35% at American Express Bank. Lets use $1000 as a bankroll. Football starts in September and ends in February so we will leave our money in the bank for 6 months. Month 1 (Sept) sees us earns 1.35% to gain $13.50, Month 2 (Oct) sees us earn 13.68$ so for the sake of space we will use 14$ per month gained, times the 6 months for a total of $84! Now can we make more than $84 dollars gambling on football? Lets use our 2% and 4% method and say we avg 3% of our bankroll on every wager (makes math easier). We will also say we make 8 wagers per week and win at 55% on -110 wageres. 8 x 4 weeks is 32 wagers per month of $30 each. We lose 45% so 14 wagers are lost at $33 for a total of $462. We win 55%  so 18 wagers are won at $30 for a total of $540. We won $540 and lost $462 for a net of $78 in a month. Now take that times the six months and we won $468 for the season! Much better than the $84 in the bank! ROI is much better. But look at that expectation! Only $468 for a season and we won 55% of our wagers. Keep in mind we now have $1468 so we virtully double our money. 

How do you make this work? It is all about the bankroll. Do NOT ever let others tell you anything different. You might win a little more or lose a little more, but it is investing in a long term outcome. You have to avoid those crazy Twitter guys with their guarantees and unrealistic expectations. Apply a strategy that works for you and your bankroll size. Ask yourself this. What if I had a $10,000 bankroll? Using the example above, you would roughly have won $4680 on the season. 

One other note I must throw in here. Pros have a higher bankroll than $10,000. They also have a higher risk tolerance for certain sports. So they might move their range on say Football to 3% and 7% whereas on Soccer they are 2% or 4%. It is all a balance of investing for the long term player. This is not intended for the guy that wants to win a single bet or bet the World Series every game. There are many reasons why gamblers make wagers. Everyday, grind it out players should be offended by much of what they see. The high risk, flash in the pan, get rich quick guys are the ones who bounce around looking for excitement. If they win great, if they lose on to the next one. Seen that on Twitter too. 

The point of all this is to make sure there is an understanding of expectaion that is accurate with sports gambling nuts and bolts. There are far too many loose get rich overnight visions that need to stop now. Whatever you win today can be given back tomorrow! Play accordingly and align your social behavior with the correct expectations.

Good Luck

Jay Bruce signs with the Mets

Today Jay Bruce signs a 3-year deal with the New York Mets. Jay had his best season in 2017. It was his best since 4 years ago in 2013 with the Reds. His WAR in 2017 was 2.7 but saw a significant increase in offensive WAR as he earned 12.1. Jay is certainly not a stellar defensive player but that is not what he was signed to do. He is here to hit!

The Mets had significant issues in their outfield 2017. Not one of their outfielders qualified as a hitter as they did not have enough at-bats. The issue was Cespedes being injured and played only 81 games. Conforto was having a breakout season and too was injured playing only 109 games. Granderson played in 111 games before moving on to LA Dodgers and Lagares and Nimmo rounded them out. A lineup with Conforto continuing to improve, Cespedes engaged and healthy, plus Bruce could go a long way. The Mets are not deep so this trio will need to play.

According to Steamer projections, this may not have been the best thing the Mets could have done. You see, Bruce was on a downswing in his career the past three seasons. Steamer suggests that 2017 was an outlier and he should revert back to the downswing seasons again. He earned 2.7 WAR in 2017. His projected Steamer WAR for 2018 is 1.0. A player with a 1 WAR is very similar to a replacement player. Brandon Nimmo earned a 1.1 WAR in 2017 for example. Conforto projects at 3.4 WAR and Cespedes at 3.0 WAR which are close to All-Star worthy. 4 WAR or above would qualify for that. Steamer is calling for 23 HRs and 71 RBIs with a K% of 22.4%. 2014, 2015 and 2016 saw a WAR below 1.0 for each of those seasons.

The bigger key for Mets improvement lies on Conforto and Cespedes carrying the load. Bruce is a worthy risk, but it appears there is a downside. Granderson earned 2.3WAR for the Mets in 2017! If Bruce is no better than 1.0 WAR, he will be a continuous letdown hitting in the middle of the lineup. Which Bruce will we see?