Odds makers are not Idiots!

Odds Makers are Not Idiots!

Major League Baseball has a unique "game" within the game aspect. A pitcher has gone thru his pregame study of the hitters he will be facing. He has charted the pitches from the prior game to get a feel for developing a strategy to get the hitters to make outs. He goes thru a pregame meeting with the catcher so they are in sync with the game plan. The hitters watch tape of their swings to make minor adjustments to improve their execution of it, then they study the pitcher on tape. They see where the release point is, they analyze his strong pitches and weak ones. They make a game plan on how to attack the pitcher. All this leads to game action, where the batter steps into the box and the pitcher receive the sign from the catcher. Then it is a matter of who executes best! 

I tell that story to tell this one. Odds Makers are extremely proficient at what they do. Their job is to be nice and friendly with the gambler but to make their casino money. That is an exceptionally fine line to walk. They have to write lines that draw action yet put themselves in profitable situations. They have to analyze numbers, data, but most important predict the future action on the games. They make adjustments to get wagers on both sides of the games but also to give them a favorable edge over the general public. Make no mistake. The sportsbook is a FOR PROFIT organization. We gamblers and handicappers have to wager the lines set by the Odds Makers. We come up with all kinds of ways to beat them. I have seen trends, systems, guessing, data analysis, computer algorithms and much more. This is the "game" within the game aspect of sports wagering.

Do not disrespect the line that is made! It has a definite purpose. Have you ever wondered why a line that was released was not a point or half a point different? There is a reason for the value it shows. The best way to beat the Odds Maker is to beat his line with yours. Your line MUST be true odds. His line is slanted to drive profit in his sportsbook. This where EV (Expected Value) can be measured. Once you learn how to make your own lines, you will be able to see through some of the smokescreens the Odds Makers put out there. Just a side note, if you are having someone else handicap games for you and make suggestions for which to wager on, they better be able to give the EV for that wager! BIG red flags should go up if they can't!

You MUST be great at team analysis and cutting-edge data analysis. Odds Makers have their "power ratings" that they base the lines on. We can find superior data and superior team analysis as edges over the Odds Makers. An edge is defined as anything that creates EV over the betting line. Once we have established those edges, we now have to get into the batter's box and take a swing at the Odds Makers' pitch. This requires us to analyze the line. What is the purpose of it? Has it moved in any direction and if so, why? Do we have any data on how much dollar volume has been wagered? This is the part where you can be the best analyst in the world and still be a losing gambler! You MUST get very proficient at reading the lines or in other terms, seeing the pitches. Ever see a batter look like a fool because of a swing and miss or get "jelly legs" due to a curveball? This is exactly what we look like when we miss our wagers! Be a tough out and know what you are doing every step of the way! Prepare better, analyze better, read the line better, and above all respect your opponent!