Projections Update National League

Baseball Prospectus National Projections as 03/05

This league is much tighter than in the AL. LAD is the largest advantage of 10 games over 2nd ARI in the league. There is only 1 60 win team projected (MIA 66) so the bottom is improving. WSH has an 8 game edge and CHC a 7 game edge. They have ARI and STL as the wildcard teams. It is a very convoluted wild card race though. ARI, STL will have to contend with MIL, SF and possibly the NYM. 

There is nothing I disagree with here. I have the league taking shape the exact same way. However, I do like ARI more than most. LAD will fall back to the pack more in 2018 narrowing the margin thus giving ARI an opportunity to close in. ARI was 11-8 vs LAD in 2017. They also led the WEST with 45 wins. LAD was 3rd with 41 wins (2nd went to COL 42 wins). ARI pitching is close and LAD will need to repeat the dominance from Wood of last season. It is hard to assume he will be that good again. LAD still has the better offense but again will need to get identical strong performances from guys who were rookies in 2017. The common trend is to see some regression from those players. 

I do like STL to overtake MIL. MIL does not have the starting pitching to match up with either CHC or STL. 

As you can see above, there is not one spot in the rotation that will favor MIL. This is a concern for a team that brought in Cain and Yelich. It will also play Braun at 1B so learning a new position. They are a pitcher or two away from contending in 2018. 

SF made a huge transition in the offseason. They are much better than the worst team in MLB as they were a season ago. Yet, the "hot stove" champs are usually not the go-to team for the regular season. Remember ARI, SD, and CHW of the past few seasons. 

The NYM is the most intriguing to me. I like their new manager Mickey Callaway. I also like they have invested in the training department. They will get Syndergaard back and he is an "ACE". He will go alongside DeGrom making a solid one-two punch at the top of the staff. If they can get some offense, they might surprise some and make a run for the wildcard spots.