Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

It has become very apparent that it is time to differentiate between all the frauds and "fly by night" so-called handicappers.  Gambling Twitter has hundreds of frauds, fakes, and phonies. Let's finally put to rest all these guys by asking smart questions. It is your money! Make sure you are investing it wisely. Isn't that the purpose, to grow your bankroll?

Ask your guy "Why are we putting my money on this game? What is the Positive Expected Value? If he does not reply with some sort of percentage advantage, he is lost and making stuff up! Understanding Positive Expected Value is straightforward for Casino gambling, but a little more problematic for sports wagering. In a casino, the odds of an outcome are always known. The payout is always known, so you can easily determine if your wagering with the best of the odds. I am providing an article written by a bookmaker so the examples he uses are best to follow. When it comes to sports wagering, the outcomes are not known, so there is more room for error and interpretation. I liken it to poker odds. For example, you know what is in your hand, you know what the drawing odds are, and you know the what cards are on the table. You don't know what the other guy has, so you are only assuming his hand strength based on his actions up to this point. Knowing what you can beat will help you wager correctly in this circumstance. Sports gambling applies in a similar way. You know the bookmaker odds, you know what teams are playing, and you know the players that will impact the outcome. However, you do not know the outcome. You must find the implied probability of the outcome then compare it to the bookmakers odds. If you have Positive Expected Value, then you are putting your money in good and over time will be profitable.

Let's make a deal! From now on, you will no longer cry about being taken advantage of by these trashy fraudulent marketers. You will educate yourself. You will only utilize the true handicappers out there. You will become a better gambler!

Here is the article. 

How to Calculate And Use Expected Value

If I asked you to explain expected value and how it relates to sports betting, how much could you tell me?  My guess is, not a whole lot. Don't be concerned. You are not alone. Most people reading this article will be the same. Similar to calculating a bookmakers margins, being able to calculate expected value is something you must know how to do.

What Is Expected Value

The easiest way to understand expected value (EV) is to break it down to its simplest form. EV is a calculation used to determine whether a bet has a positive or negative profit expectation. For example, If you are playing roulette and put a $1 chip on all 36 numbers and another on zero, you will have risked a total of $37. After the spin, 36 of your bets will lose, and one bet will win. You will earn $35 of profit and get your chip back for a total of $36. A net loss of $1. If you divide your net loss of -1$ by your risk of $37, you get -1.027. The -0.027 represents a loss in cents per dollar risked. You will lose 2.7 cents per dollar bet on roulette.

Applying Expected Value to Sports Betting

For casino games where probability outcomes are known, calculating expected value is straightforward. Calculating EV in sports betting, however, can be tricky. Unlike games of chance, calculating expected value for a specific sports bet before the game starts is not possible. This is a very important point and one bettors often confuse. Because the true probabilities of outcomes are not known until the game is complete, any attempt to speculate on the EV of a sports wager would be an estimate at best. An easier way of thinking about the true application of expected value in sports betting would be to refer to it as Profit Expectation instead. Profit expectation can be used to determine the skill of a bettor using his results over an extended period of time. For example, You make 100 wagers at even money for $1 each. You end up winning 55 and losing 45 for a profit of $10. If you divide $10 by 100, you determine that you have a profit expectation of 0.1 or 10%. By comparing the probability of the outcome with the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you can determine if you have a positive profit expectation. Not all bettors with positive profit history are skilled bettors. Luck plays a large role in the success of gambling. Calculating profit expectation will tell you how much luck is influencing the true result. Knowing that you have a positive expectancy is a way to validate your methods. This is the principal of value betting at its finest. Knowing that you have a negative expectancy allows you to save yourself from continuing to chase bad wagers and promote making a change. 

Don't Be Biased When Calculating

I encourage you to go back through your wager history and gather enough data so you can determine your profit expectancy. Looking at these figures without bias can be difficult. It takes a lot to accept that luck plays a part in your results and your wins and losses are not dictated solely by your predictive ability and decisions you make. If you approach your history without bias, you will be able to identify if your betting methods will provide you long-term success, or not. Don't worry if the results are not what you want to see. Accept them for what they are and build on them. Self-awareness is important. You are the only person holding you back from changing a negative profit expectaion into a positive one.