This Twitter sports gambling thing is amazing. There are guys with 50 unit plays, something called a Double MAX play, Play of the Year every week and much more non-sense. Sports gambling is as much of a daily grind as it is to try to play poker for a living. There is no such thing as a Double MAX play. There are hundreds of options on Twitter. The best Twitter provides is a connection to players and cappers. The worst Twitter provides are expectations of easy money that are so outrageous one wonders how anyone doesn't see through it.
It is simple. Only bet games where you believe there is a defined edge. The phrase "pros bet numbers and Joes bet teams" is pretty accurate. There is also the adage that "trends don't pay the rent" which is also accurate. The number of games to wager depends on how many edges you find. Pro sports bettors do not play every game, nor make many parlay wagers nor do they play all these crazy teaser options. You won't find them "buying the hook" or any of this other crap. I saw a service provide a "Play of the Year" and told their clients to buy the hook! Pro sports bettors find spots where they believe they have a positvie EV (expected value). They play every one of those no matter if it is 6 games on one day and only 1 game on another. Put your money in good.
Once your money is in good, the expectation is to lose 40% of your wagers or 45% of them! Wow. The truth "is what it is". Sure there are runs of greatness and runs of horror, but long term daily wagering you will lose somewhere around 40% of your wagers and if that were to happen, you are an outperfomer! 60% wins or higher over a year with hundreds of wagers is excellent. So even with the best scenarios, this is what pros expect. Hence, they don't grade things in units! It is not a game to collect units then claim a unit is worth "x" dollars to show how much winning they do. Pros are looking at the dollars period. Most pros are using a flat betting aproach where there are two options. Option A is a standard wager of X dollars and Option B which is an enlarged wager but consistent to their bankroll. For example, a standard wager might be 2% of their bankroll and an enlarged wager might be 4% of their bankroll.
Here is a concept. If you put your money that you wager on sports in a savings account in a bank (you should put your money into a cd or something not a savings account), how much money would you gain by the end of a season? Let's try it with a season like football due to the large number of -110 wagers you would have. Just looked it up and you can get 1.35% at American Express Bank. Lets use $1000 as a bankroll. Football starts in September and ends in February so we will leave our money in the bank for 6 months. Month 1 (Sept) sees us earns 1.35% to gain $13.50, Month 2 (Oct) sees us earn 13.68$ so for the sake of space we will use 14$ per month gained, times the 6 months for a total of $84! Now can we make more than $84 dollars gambling on football? Lets use our 2% and 4% method and say we avg 3% of our bankroll on every wager (makes math easier). We will also say we make 8 wagers per week and win at 55% on -110 wageres. 8 x 4 weeks is 32 wagers per month of $30 each. We lose 45% so 14 wagers are lost at $33 for a total of $462. We win 55% so 18 wagers are won at $30 for a total of $540. We won $540 and lost $462 for a net of $78 in a month. Now take that times the six months and we won $468 for the season! Much better than the $84 in the bank! ROI is much better. But look at that expectation! Only $468 for a season and we won 55% of our wagers. Keep in mind we now have $1468 so we virtully double our money.
How do you make this work? It is all about the bankroll. Do NOT ever let others tell you anything different. You might win a little more or lose a little more, but it is investing in a long term outcome. You have to avoid those crazy Twitter guys with their guarantees and unrealistic expectations. Apply a strategy that works for you and your bankroll size. Ask yourself this. What if I had a $10,000 bankroll? Using the example above, you would roughly have won $4680 on the season.
One other note I must throw in here. Pros have a higher bankroll than $10,000. They also have a higher risk tolerance for certain sports. So they might move their range on say Football to 3% and 7% whereas on Soccer they are 2% or 4%. It is all a balance of investing for the long term player. This is not intended for the guy that wants to win a single bet or bet the World Series every game. There are many reasons why gamblers make wagers. Everyday, grind it out players should be offended by much of what they see. The high risk, flash in the pan, get rich quick guys are the ones who bounce around looking for excitement. If they win great, if they lose on to the next one. Seen that on Twitter too.
The point of all this is to make sure there is an understanding of expectaion that is accurate with sports gambling nuts and bolts. There are far too many loose get rich overnight visions that need to stop now. Whatever you win today can be given back tomorrow! Play accordingly and align your social behavior with the correct expectations.
Good Luck
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