MLB Run Differential Stories

A Key Stat to Follow Can be Run Differential

It is a simple and basic number. Run differential is the value of runs scored minus runs given up. It is a measure most often used to identify the strength of MLB teams. It can be applied to other sports like football and basketball, but for sure it is a useful measure in MLB. Teamrankings.com has a valuable way to see the data. I am posting their complete Run Differential list below.

Their list shows the total season, Last3 games played, Home games, Away games and what they in 2017. If you knew nothing about the MLB season, you could look at this reports and know who the haves and have-nots are quick. There are 2 teams over 200+ runs and 5 teams over 100+. There are also almost 2 teams -200 runs and there are 6 teams that are -100+! This chart can identify recently hot teams like LA Dodgers who have +20 runs in the last 3 games. It can show you some extreme variances like HOU. The Astros are +200 and +153 Away. It is astonishing to see that they are 76.5% more run differential away from home! Identifying these kinds of situations can lead to investing opportunities. HOU plays SEA today in Seattle. HOU has an extreme variance away and SEA is -33 at home which is 19th ranked in MLB. It shows just how far ahead of SEA that HOU really is. This creates an expected value positive. When investing, that is all we are trying to find. The more situations we have positive expected value, the more chances of winning our investments.

It is also cool to see how teams are doing one year to the next. A couple of examples are the SD Padres, WSH Nationals, and CIN Reds. Both CIN and SD are improved and WSH has become worse. Last season SD was the worst with -212 but now are only -120. That is nearly a 100 run improvement. CIN was -116 yet now they are only -62. Those are two more competitive with bright futures. WSH, on the other hand, is nearly 100 runs worse than last season. 

I would recommend spending some time analyzing run differential to see if you can find anything that is worthy of making investments.