Today Jay Bruce signs a 3-year deal with the New York Mets. Jay had his best season in 2017. It was his best since 4 years ago in 2013 with the Reds. His WAR in 2017 was 2.7 but saw a significant increase in offensive WAR as he earned 12.1. Jay is certainly not a stellar defensive player but that is not what he was signed to do. He is here to hit!
The Mets had significant issues in their outfield 2017. Not one of their outfielders qualified as a hitter as they did not have enough at-bats. The issue was Cespedes being injured and played only 81 games. Conforto was having a breakout season and too was injured playing only 109 games. Granderson played in 111 games before moving on to LA Dodgers and Lagares and Nimmo rounded them out. A lineup with Conforto continuing to improve, Cespedes engaged and healthy, plus Bruce could go a long way. The Mets are not deep so this trio will need to play.
According to Steamer projections, this may not have been the best thing the Mets could have done. You see, Bruce was on a downswing in his career the past three seasons. Steamer suggests that 2017 was an outlier and he should revert back to the downswing seasons again. He earned 2.7 WAR in 2017. His projected Steamer WAR for 2018 is 1.0. A player with a 1 WAR is very similar to a replacement player. Brandon Nimmo earned a 1.1 WAR in 2017 for example. Conforto projects at 3.4 WAR and Cespedes at 3.0 WAR which are close to All-Star worthy. 4 WAR or above would qualify for that. Steamer is calling for 23 HRs and 71 RBIs with a K% of 22.4%. 2014, 2015 and 2016 saw a WAR below 1.0 for each of those seasons.
The bigger key for Mets improvement lies on Conforto and Cespedes carrying the load. Bruce is a worthy risk, but it appears there is a downside. Granderson earned 2.3WAR for the Mets in 2017! If Bruce is no better than 1.0 WAR, he will be a continuous letdown hitting in the middle of the lineup. Which Bruce will we see?
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