The line moves and is HUGE news!

There is a common thought that Sports Books make a betting line to get equal wagering action on both the favorite and the underdog. In many cases, this is absolutely correct. However, there are several "spots" where the Books are not as concerned about their liabilities on one side of the game and have identified this spot where it wants to make money rather than split it. We can discover these spots and "follow the money", but more importantly, see what reaction the Book takes regarding their line move. We must understand that no matter how good of game breakdown analysts we are, we must also break down the line moves based on the money flow.

There are websites, tweets from sportsbook directors and postings of these readily available on a daily basis. It is important to find one and use it. Get used to the idea that not all games are intended to have equal action and sportsbooks DON'T lose money. Sure they may get beat a game or two, but over the daily slate of games, they will win or they wouldn't be in business. A good follow on Twitter is David Purdum. He analyses Vegas books daily and posts how much Vegas casinos win monthly. It is public record.

How do we identify these spots? An example looks like this. Alabama played Georgia for the NCAA Championship. The line opened -3 and quickly went to -4. Normal move based on money. However, money continued to come in on ALA at over 60% yet no move to -4.5. Why? It is because the books were satisfied with their liability and didn't mind the money to continue to come in on ALA. It really isn't that simple in this case due to teaser bets, future bets and parlay bets, but it is the gist. When the books don't respond to moving the liability they hold, they believe one side will prevail and they will make money as opposed to splitting the money. It also happens the opposite way. Let's say the money is rolling in on an underdog at +7. But the book doesn't reduce the line to +6.5. It means they like the money coming in on +7 and want more of it. Again, it is not quite this simple, but it is what to look for. The book wants to make money on some games and on others, they split their liability. 

As much time as we put into handicapping games, we must also get proficient at handicapping the line moves based on the flow of the money! When the book shows a bias toward a side of a game, it is the BEST choice to side with the book! Remember, they make money every week and every month.