Projection Updates! American League

Baseball Prospectus Updated Projections as of 03/05

Most analysts believe the AL East will be the only competitive division for the top spot in the 2018 season and I believe that as well. It is noteworthy though that these projections show the AL East to be the competitive, yet still an 8 game variance to 2nd spot. They also indicate how far it is to reach the AL Central and AL West top spots as CLE is 14 games better and HOU is 19 games better than 2nd spot. Lastly, this would indicate BOS and TAM as wildcard teams for the playoffs. 

I do agree with NYY as the front-runner and I also agree that 7-9 games will be the margin. I know many feel that JD Martinez fills the gap between the teams' offense and that is the case. However, the margin is in relief pitching. The NYY have an RP WAR of 7.2 and BOS 3.9. There is no question as to has the best bullpen. The current starting pitching is virtually even. Baseball Prospectus might see it that NYY has the better offense too, hence the 8 game margin. NYY was 11-8 vs BOS in 2017. NYY had 44 and BOS 41 wins in the AL East in 2017. Stanton is an MVP player and Martinez is maybe an All-Star player. NYY has the edge and the AL East will go through them.

I also agree that the other divisions are extremely top heavy. CLE and HOU are the best teams in those divisions and it is not even close. It would not surprise me to see 100+ wins for both of those teams. 

I do not agree with TAM projection of being a wildcard team. I believe they are more .500 type team with a downward arrow of being below that target. I am not sold on Kevin Cash as their manager. They are also worse defensively than they have been. It is hard to replace 2 starters (Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb), the face of their franchise (Evan Longoria), an All-Star from 2017(Corey Dickerson) and a rising star(Steven Souza Jr). I believe BOS will take one of the wildcard spots and MIN will take the other. I like MIN because they play in the Central. They will get 57 games versus the worst teams in the AL (19 each vs. CHW, DET, KC). Their offense is very good. If their pitching can hold up, this will be a playoff team. They will have a scheduling edge against teams like LAA and SEA. The wildcard race will be the interesting watch in the AL.