Chicago Cubs Team Preview from my preseason book

Chicago Cubs

2017 92-70 1st division | Playoff team went to NLCS lost to LAD in 5 games

2017 HOME 48-33 | AWAY 44-37

2017 BATTING WAR 26.7 PITCHING WAR 15.9 TOTAL WAR 42.6

2018 Projections: BAT WAR 27.3 | PIT WAR 22.6 | TOT WAR 49.9

Their WAR total ranked 5th but that is a misleading headline. Their offense was 10th and their defense was #1. WAR does consider defense unless listed as OFF. As they were the defending champs, they got off to a slow start. In fact, they were .500 (40-40) as of July 1st. Their offense finished 4th in runs scored. They ranked 9th in HRs and 10th in IOS (extra base hit gauge). They did find ways to get on base. Their wOBA was 5th and BB% was 2nd! Their bat avg was 16th so those BBs really helped. Their largest weakness was baserunning and clutch hitting. Their rank in BsR was 24 and -6.6 runs to average. They ranked 26th in CLUTCH hitting. The starting pitching was not like their championship year. They were 3rd in 2016 but fell to 10th last season. The ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05.

They were 19th in HR/9. They were bad in the CLUTCH like their hitters. They ranked 27th. The bullpen ranked 14th which is up from 19th of their championship season. The ERA in the pen was 3.80 ranking 6th.

They were led by Kris Bryant. He delivered 6.7 WAR and was in the MVP conversation. He led with 111 runs scored and 146 wRC+. He batted .295 and was a positively rated defender too. Anthony Rizzo earned 4.0 WAR. All-Star caliber. He led with 32 HRs and 109 RBI. He a negatively rated defender. Wilson Contreras provided 3.2 WAR in his 1st full season as C. He too like most Cubs, is a positive defender as well. Javier Baez earned 2.2 WAR. He was versatile in playing 4 positions (1B, 2B. SS, 3B). Ian Happ produced 1.8 WAR. He hit 24 HRs but had a high K% of 31.2%. Addison Russel productivity was cut by more than half. He earned 1.4 in 2017, but 3.9 in 2016. He is more of a defender, but 2017 was his worst so far.

The 2018 offense will be led by the same guys. Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Bryant again MVP quality and Rizzo with Contreras All-Star worthy. Russell projects to have a resurgence. He is expected to have 2.8 WAR. Jayson Heyward shows up with 2.2. Happ with an improved 2.1. Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist will get some at-bats, but it looks like they will be sharing roles. Baez will be the 2B for the Cubs so Zobrist will play some LF.

The pitchers were led by Jon Lester and his 2.7 WAR. 4 of their main 5 were above 2.0 but no one into 3.0. Big time pitchers get well over that mark. Lester started 32 games but ended up with 4.33 ERA. Kyle Hendricks made 24 starts due to injury. He had 2.5 WAR and had the lowest ERA of 3.03. He is tough with guys on base. His LOB% was 82.5%. Jake Arrieta made 30 starts and led with 14 wins. He turned in 2.4 WAR. Newcomer Jose Quintana gave them 2.0 WAR in only 14 starts. CHI was 10-4 in games he started. He swept September going 5-0 with an ERA of 2.51! John Lackey

made 30 starts. His WAR was 0.5. Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler picked up games when the others were out.

Now for some fun. The offseason in CHI has not been quiet. They signed Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood! Quintana projects at 4.8 WAR, Darvish with 4.2 WAR. They immediately get 2 top of the rotation guys. Lester projects at 3.7 WAR. This sets up great matchups for their guys too. Most teams will not see this caliber starter at the #3 spot regardless of which one of these guys fill that role. Now throw in Hendricks as the #4! Very tough here. Chatwood is an improved #5 spot too. Plus, Montgomery can spot start when needed. In the bullpen, we have a new closer in Brandon Morrow. He replaces Wade Davis. He projects at 1.3 which is higher than Davis 1.1 from last season. Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson get more of the games this year. Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop are still there and will pitch often, but Maddon has new toys and will use them. 2018 pitching is deep and plentiful with talent!

The 2017 CHI won 92 games. The sabermetric standings suggest they lost 4 games more than they should have to make 96 wins a more accurate total. CHI was +127 runs in Run Differential. BOS was +117 with 93 wins. The Run Differential does not support the extra games. We will adjust down to 94 wins as the most accurate gauge of performance in 2017. The projections call for 92 or 89 wins. I believe this pitching staff has dramatically improved therefore 89 wins is too low. I also can not seem them worse than last year final record of 94 wins. The division is improved with STL adding hitters and MIL rising with young talent. Based on competition, I can see how we should not be overly optimistic. I do expect CHC to be the team to beat. My team wins total for CHC is 96 wins.

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