"Trends don't pay the rent."
Sports statistics has advanced to a point where information is a gambler,s weapon to exploiting Vegas odds makers. A perfect example of this is from this weekend NFL games. Specifically, the Pittsburgh and Jacksonville game.
The narrative that Pittsburgh was revenge minded and would avenge their loss where they threw 5 interceptions and were routed 30-9 was great story line. In fact, there were many trends favoring this theory. For example, a favorite of 7 or 7.5 in the Divisional round, is 20-5 straight up, PIT is 11-1 against the spread at home revenging an upset loss and the Jaguars are 2-6 when they allow more than 10 points. Here we see a certain steering towards betting on PIT. It was also assumed that PIT has a good to above average defense that would stifle a Jaguars offense that scored 10 points in each of their last two games. Makes a compelling case when you consider how good PIT offense is and Antonio Brown was going to be back. If you followed this narrative, you would not be the only one. In fact, 71% of 2.37 million dollars were wagered on PIT! My clients were on Jacksonville and the over.
Analytics led the way for the correct choice. The only true issue was trust. The true evaluation was how to gauge the PIT defense as it was a far below average group and to assess the Jacksonville offense as it was hidden for 2 straight games. The analytics showed that PIT was dead last in broken tackles allowed, ranked 30th in 2nd level yards, ranked 30th in allowing open field yards, they fell 18 spots in pass defense from week 9 when Shazier was injured, they were ranked dead last in red zone defense against the run, and they allowed over 29 points per game over their last four games to QBs such as Hundley, Flacco and Kizer. The writing was on the proverbial wall about this defense. Analytics showed the appropriate way to look at this game. The issue was trusting the information because the offense was so dreadful for Jacksonville the past couple of games.
Analytics is the clear advantage to getting the right understanding of the teams. It is imperative to know how to understand their meaning, use the information to get a clear picture assessing the teams, and most important, how to use the information correctly. Due to the excess of this data, it is also extremely valuable to use the correct data. For example, there is not much value to assess a TEs ability to impact a game if he is not a major part of the their game plan, that should be used for fantasy points. The analytics applies even more so to baseball.
There are many new terms and statistics for analysis of MLB. Selecting the appropriate analytics is extremely valuable in this area. There are so many great statistics that can be used and I am sure there will be more to come. Some lead to understanding how a player gets better or worse but those aren't the ones that are predicting, guiding and correlating game outcomes. This where you must spend a large part of your time. Exit velocity does not tell you who to put a wager on! It might tell you who to include in your DFS lineup though.
Either become a study of this information or hire someone who is astute in their ability to decipher and apply the information in ways that generate favorable wagering opportunities. It is a complex area but it is the future of sports. The ability to tie that information into sports gambling is not only here, but if you are not, you are behind.
As always, good luck.
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