NFL example of +EV situation using Win Percentage

 

Using win percentage to find +EV situations in the NFL

Let’s use today’s game with Carolina traveling to Green Bay to illustrate how to find expected value positive situations.

This game is GB -8 at most places and opened -9.5. There are reasons that people are betting the Panthers, but we are looking at a simplified process to gauge the strength of the line. First, we need to get a Win Percentage in this game. How many times out of a 100 will GB beat CAR? There are many ways to calculate this depending on your models, algorithms, or handicapping; but I use Team Ranking’s model as everyone has access and it is rather good. I am using the Similar Games Analysis section so we can get historical input that resembles this matchup.

The picture will show a Green Bay win percentage of 91.1%! The result surprised me. It is very high!

This result indicates that CAR has little chance of winning the game. However, getting 8 points are good right? We need to convert the winning percentage into a money line, then convert that into a spread to find out. Let’s start with the money line conversion.

You will need a Spread Converter for this. I use this one from Sportsbookreview.com. The graphic shows 90% (89.97%) win percentage on the money line is -1641.9 and that converts to -13.5 -110 on a spread line.

The math shows that GB in this spot should be -13.5-point favorite against CAR today! This creates an expected value positive situation of 5.5 points to the line. The variance is a HUGE edge to GB side. If you make +EV bets, you should expect to WIN many of them. The real question is how do you know if you are making one? When risking your money, make smart choices! Using a methodology like this or at least one similar, you can calculate your edge and define it. There are very few handicappers that can define their edge and prove the +EV situation exists. Now you can too!

 

 

 

 

Houston Astros Sign Stealing in a view of wins

HOU sign stealing and the possible ramifications

We can’t really get into the 2020 season without talking about the sign-stealing scandal. HOU had their GM and their field manager suspended for 1 year by MLB, then they were fired by the team’s owner. BOS lost its field manager as a carryover effect. Their manager was previously HOU bench coach and the main instigator. Also caught up in this, was the new NYM manager as he was a prior player for HOU. This is the story of the 2017 HOU Astros, 2018 BOS Red Sox. MLB investigated and found that HOU was cheating by using technology to steal signs. Ultimately, we do not know the depth of this as MLB has decided to keep the investigation details closed. MLB did find HOU guilty and seemingly BOS as well. This article is not about that story. We all know it already. This is about the effect that knowing when a slider is coming what advantage does the hitter have.

Some context here is necessary for understanding. The first part is to understand the pitch value. It measures the runs above or below average by the type of pitch thrown. I have looked at this data for years. Here is some context around what is the best run-saving pitch in baseball. It is the slider. It has become the most runs saved above average pitch making it the number one out pitch in baseball. Below are the last three years of data of fastballs and sliders thrown by pitchers. I used the last three years due to 2017 being the start date (HOU World Series) of when the cheating began. I used the fastball as a reference due to it being the most thrown pitch in MLB.

                2017 Fastball 4 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 18 teams

                2018 Fastball 9 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 24 teams

                2019 Fastball 7 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 16 teams

As you can see above, the slider is the most used out pitch in MLB. This would also indicate that it is the toughest pitch in MLB. The reasoning is that each of the last 3 seasons, double-digit teams saved more runs to average than any other pitch is thrown.

Looking at the offensive side, there are some amazing results. HOU won in 2017, BOS won in 2018, and HOU was found to have cheated in 2019. They didn’t win it all, but they were in the game. I find that may not have been all skillful. The cheating was specific to the slider or curveball. Any pitch that breaks. The noises heard from the dugout where the signal to be ready for a slower, moving, or curving pitch.

    2017 HOU was #1 offense vs the slider (only 3 teams were double-digit runs gained and          only 4 teams were positive runs in total) and #1 vs the curveball.

                2018 BOS was #1 offense (only 2 teams were positive runs gained) vs the slider

                2019 HOU was #1 offense and BOS#2 vs the slider (see the chart below as it is very                            telling)

               

It is almost embarrassing to see the disparity between the HOU and BOS offense. They not only are the only teams in double-digit runs gained above average, but they are also at minimum 6 times better than the 3^rd place team! To have an edge this large, it becomes less of a competition and more of an exhibition. This kind of an edge allows these teams to view the games like batting practice or to some degree like a home run derby.

It will be very difficult to understand the betting ramifications of this until a couple of months into the season. I believe both teams have quality talent but they obviously took advantage of knowing the pitches. Undoubtedly, both of these teams will have reduced performance. However, if they knew spinning balls were coming, they also know when a fastball was coming too. Now, they will no longer know either. Both teams will suffer offensively from this. The biggest question is how much?

The slider will become a tough pitch again for these 2 teams. If we assume they will become better than average but not the best in baseball, we can assume HOU will lose 57.8 runs and BOS 44.6 runs just on one pitch. Those calculations are based on the 15^th ranked team (ATL -19.8 runs) as an average. HOU was #2 against the fastball. Doing the same exercise, it is possible they could lose another 73 runs! In total, they could lose nearly 130 runs! Their run differential would drop to +150 or so. The Washington Nationals had +149 (won 93 games). HOU also loses G.Cole and becomes less stellar on the mound. This too reduces the run differential. It is very possible that HOU will win less than 90 games!

Sign stealing has a quantitative effect. It is very possible HOU does not win the AL West (OAK can pass them by). They will have to fight to make it out of the Wild Card round. I think they catch a break if BOS trades Betts, as BOS would become a team less likely to compete with them for those spots. This will be a very tough season on them. There seems to be bad blood amongst the other teams and players. HOU will endure a tough season having to battle those heated feelings towards them from the players and fans. The ramifications of their actions could make for a lost season. We will see.

3 True Outcomes

Regression measured thru Game Score

San Diego Padre 2019 update

San Diego Padres Update

Now that the Padres have won the Manny Machado sweepstakes, we need to update their outlook for 2019. First off, it is good for MLB that a small market team was able to compete and win a free agent of this magnitude. Manny Machado projects with 5.4 WAR which is 8^th best. He is projected to hit 33 HR, have 94 RBI and score 88 runs. He is in the elite class of players.

The Padres are ranked #1 in their farm system. The top 100 prospects are ranked every season. They are a team that is on the rise soon, and now with Manny, their immediate future is also better. He will likely play SS to start the season. Their infield will be formidable. Eric Hosmer at 1B, Luis Urias 2B (1 of those top 100 prospects), and Ian Kinsler to play 3B. They will be calling up Fernando Tatis Jr this season. He will either play SS moving Manny to 3B or he will take over 3B. He is the future of this team. Their infield of Urias, Machado, and Tatis Jr is very good for many seasons to come. SD also has 7 pitchers in top 100 list! This organization is stacked with talent.

Not getting ahead of ourselves here though, Machado projection of 5.4 WAR is their only above 2.0 WAR guy this season. The issue is youthfulness and time in the big leagues. These young guys will be getting their chance this season but Tatis Jr will start in AAA. SD will need these hitters to develop into above 2.0 WAR players (they all show signs that will not be a problem). We will see C Francisco Mejia this season too.

They now have 5 guys with 20+ HR projections for 2019. They will need their young outfielders to progress this season. Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe all need to make steps forward. The offense looks to be much better than the 28^th rank of 2018. The pitching is still at least one year away. It seems like their window for division competitiveness starts in 2020. They made great strides with this move. There is nothing to say they won’t do another move next season when there are many good starting pitcher free agents on the market.

Their projected wins were 75 prior to Machado and now are 80 (only 2 games under .500). I still think that is a forward or aggressive outlook. I think they will be shy of those projections. 

2019 MLB Preview and Betting Guide

The preview and betting guide is now available. It is FREE on my Telegram page. Use this link to get there once you have downloaded Telegram. : 

https://t.me/joinchat/GRon-RYpyXWpD7u06lupgA

There are 170 pages of Baseball! Team previews, recaps, and forecasts for every team. There are articles about run differential, Offensive difficulty, Game Score, Relief pitching, and many more subjects.

2019 Houston Astros Preview

Houston Astros

       HOU was the defending World Champs. They ran into injury trouble and slow start, but they still won 103 games. I contend that HOU was the best team in MLB last season. Their adjusted win standings show a .667 win percentage which is 108 wins (BOS should have won less at 104). Anyway, the games are real and not played in data alternative environment. This team was pushed down the stretch. OAK would not go away and finished with 97 wins. SEA drove the 1^st half of the season to make HOU work, so they had no joy ride to win the division.

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       Surprisingly, HOU was not that impressive at home. They won 46 games which ranks 12^th. Their home game run differential was +81 or 5^th. They had the best pitching in MLB last season which helped the run differential. What was impressive was their road dominance. HOU won 57 away games going 57-24 for the best in MLB. Their away run differential was +189! They were far and away the most dominant road team. HOU had the best run differential in MLB with +270. This easily validates the adjusted standings.

          The difference between HOU, BOS and NYY is the offense. HOU ranks 5^th in OFF (behind BOS and NYY). HOU scored 797 runs whereas BOS had 876 and NYY had 851. They put the ball in play, don’t strike out but have slightly less power, ranking 10^th in ISO. HOU pitchers made them so good last season. The 2017 team was awesome hitting as well as pitching. I have included 2017 hitters and 2018.

Notice the decline in Altuve, Correa, Springer, Gonzalez etc. Only Bregman was better last season. This is good news for their 2019 outlook. A common theme has been difficulty comping your best seasons, and this again rang true for HOU. However, a resurgence can be expected as well.

       HOU was #1 in pitching last season (starters #2, relievers #3). HOU starters threw the 2^nd most innings in MLB and were the only group to have 10+ K/9 (10.37). They had the lowest FIP with 3.28. They had 4 guys with 30+ starts. Justin Verlander led with 34. He also had a 6.8 WAR with 2.78 FIP! Gerrit Cole made 32 starts producing 6.3 WAR with a 2.70 FIP. These two were as dominant as any pair in MLB. Dallas Keuchel made 34 starts with 3.6 WAR and Charlie Morton 30 starts with a 3.1 WAR. Lance McCullers went down and had Tommy John surgery although he did make 22 starts. HOU bullpen is very good. They had 4 guys earn over 1.0 WAR. McHugh 1.4, Rondon 1.3, Harris 1.2 and Pressly 1.0. Osuna became their closer late last season. He had 1.99 ERA and 12 Saves in 23 games.

          HOU made some changes for the 2019 season. Michael Brantley comes in to play OF and Robinson Chirinos will catch. The best news is the hitting projections. Bregman leads with 5.5 WAR so he should be a perennial All-Star with some MVP discussion. Altuve is back up to 4.6 WAR. Springer at 4.0 WAR and Correa 4.5 WAR. These are the 4 guys that stir this mix and they all should be at peak performance. Brantley projects with 2.0 WAR being a solid starter.

The starters suffer a bit this season. Verlander and Cole are back and will still be very good. They lose Morton, Keuchel and McCullers will not be on the roster this season. They are planning on Joshua James who filled in for McCullers last season to continue to develop. They just signed Wade Miley as an insurance policy, but he pitched well last season (3.59 FIP). McHugh may move into a starting role. All of this is just waiting on their real answer, Forrest Whitley. He is due on the scene this season. A comparison would be Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. He is very talented and will make an impact once he gets his feet wet in the big leagues. The bullpen will benefit from Osuna and Pressly for the entire season making it deeper and more talented.

       I am high on HOU. I am using 108 as a starting point from 2018. However, this is tricky. I foresee them better on offense, but worse and less deep on the mound. Pitching matters and was the reason this team was so run differential strong in 2018. I don’t see that as the case this year. Winning 100 games is tough, but their division is not as strong this year. SEA went into sell-off and OAK has no pitchers. I think they could win near 100 games despite losing their pitchers. Their projection is only 95. I think that is a very large drop, but I will shade towards a lower end number of wins. I think 98 wins seems reasonable assumption for HOU.

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Boston Red Sox Preview 2019

AL East Team Previews

Boston Red Sox

       The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games amassing the best record in baseball. They dominated the Dodgers in the World Series going 4-1. They really beat up the poor in the AL East. They were 16-3 vs BAL and 15-4 vs TOR. The AL East is competitive with 2 teams with 100 or more wins and the Rays won 90.

       Last season there were 4 “Super Teams” heading into the season (BOS, NYY, HOU, LAD) and BOS lived up to their billing. They capitalized at home. They were 57-24 best in MLB. Their run differential at home was +146. BOS was the best against RHP. They were an astounding 87-38! HOU was 2^nd with 66-36.

       Mookie Betts won the AL MVP. He earned it. He had a 10.4 WAR, 185 wRC+, .438 OBP, 32HR, and he was 11.6

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def WAR. JD Martinez was late to sign in the offseason but was also in the MVP award conversation. He had a 5.9 WAR, 170 wRC+, .402 OBP, 43HR, 130 RBI with 111 Runs scored. Xander Bogaerts had a bounce-back season which turned out to be his best of his career. He had 4.9 WAR, 133 wRC+, with 103 RBI. They have 2 100+ RBI producers. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi earned 4.3 WAR, 122 wRC+, while scoring 103 runs. On many teams you will see one player that helps a team win, this team had 4 offensive stalwarts. 

       The 2019 team will get a long time Red Sox back in the lineup. Dustin Pedroia will again resume the 2^nd base position. Steve Pearce was resigned so BOS will get a full year from him. There are no other changes. So, the question is whether this team will be able to hold off the pennant chasers for another season.

       BOS scored more runs than any team in MLB last season with 876 which is 101 more runs than 2017. 2017 was the 1^st season without David Ortiz, so maybe they have their way to overcome his production loss. I am willing to believe their offense will resemble 2018 and not 2017 for this year. However, the projections show a drop-in productivity. This should be expected as their main guys all had career-best seasons last year. It is not easy to out produce your career-best season back to back. Youth is the key to that and they have youth.

       Here is a look into 2019.

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I will include 2018 totals for comparisons.

As you can see, there is a drop off at the top. Keep in mind that a 2.0 WAR is a solid everyday player and BOS will have 6! The projections also show an improved Rafael Devers. This offense will still be multifunctional and revolve around many run producing players which is what makes it unique. I expect the drop off not to affect the overall by very much.

       The starting pitching could not have gone better for BOS in 2018. I suppose one could argue injuries could have made for a better season, but production from the

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first 4 guys were very good. They had Porcello and Price make 30 starts. Porcello went 17-7 and Price 16-7. Sale and Rodriguez made 27 starts each with Sale 12-4 and Rodriguez 13-5. Those 4 starters were 58-23. Sale was the dominant one with a WAR of 6.5. Both Porcello and Price had 2.7 WAR.

       Sale had a FIP of 1.98 with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout percentage was 38.4%. His left on base percentage was 82.5%. He was truly an ACE. He did falter with a shoulder problem so he may not be the same this season. When returned from that injury, his fastball was several MPH lower.

       The 2019 outlook is very good. Sale is projected to be the best pitcher in MLB with 6.5 WAR! No ill effects from the shoulder anticipated. Price and Eovaldi are ranked in the top 30. They will have 3 fifths of the rotation as elite with the best in the league. Follow that with Porcello and Rodriguez and there is quality in these starters. Their depth is not nearly as quality though. The fill-ins will struggle to win when called on. 

        The bullpen is where there are significant issues going into 2019. They were ranked 9^th in WAR last season but have lost Joe Kelly who threw the most innings and has yet to replace or resign Craig Kimbrel. Between Kimbrel’s1.5 WAR and Kelly’s 0.7 WAR, the two account for roughly half accumulated WAR for their entire bullpen of 2018! Matt Barnes is the closer for now with Ryan Brasier as the setup guy. No one in this bullpen is slated for over 1.0 WAR, in fact, Barnes 0.8 is the largest projection. They

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will need the HOU approach where the bullpen throws the fewest inning in the league. That is not an easy ask in the AL East where there is offense.

       The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018. The adjusted standings say they should have won 104 games. Their run differential was +262 only HOU was better. The HOU team should have won 108 games so 104 games are a valid starting point for 2019. It is very difficult to comp career seasons from your best players so I will adjust a little lower going into 2019 for that but not a dramatic amount due to how BOS plays. I believe their starters are good and should reproduce their success from 2018. They will also have to take a hit for the bullpen weakness. This is not a strength and currently ranks 21^st coming into 2019. We are already have shown that 40% of the game relies upon this area. The projections call for 97 wins.

       I will agree with the projections here. I can see plus or minus a couple of games, but 97 wins is a very good estimate. I can also see where a free agent signing or a trade to bolster this bullpen would be a wise move and would help solidify this team at the top. 

MLB Run Differential Stories

A Key Stat to Follow Can be Run Differential

It is a simple and basic number. Run differential is the value of runs scored minus runs given up. It is a measure most often used to identify the strength of MLB teams. It can be applied to other sports like football and basketball, but for sure it is a useful measure in MLB. Teamrankings.com has a valuable way to see the data. I am posting their complete Run Differential list below.

Their list shows the total season, Last3 games played, Home games, Away games and what they in 2017. If you knew nothing about the MLB season, you could look at this reports and know who the haves and have-nots are quick. There are 2 teams over 200+ runs and 5 teams over 100+. There are also almost 2 teams -200 runs and there are 6 teams that are -100+! This chart can identify recently hot teams like LA Dodgers who have +20 runs in the last 3 games. It can show you some extreme variances like HOU. The Astros are +200 and +153 Away. It is astonishing to see that they are 76.5% more run differential away from home! Identifying these kinds of situations can lead to investing opportunities. HOU plays SEA today in Seattle. HOU has an extreme variance away and SEA is -33 at home which is 19th ranked in MLB. It shows just how far ahead of SEA that HOU really is. This creates an expected value positive. When investing, that is all we are trying to find. The more situations we have positive expected value, the more chances of winning our investments.

It is also cool to see how teams are doing one year to the next. A couple of examples are the SD Padres, WSH Nationals, and CIN Reds. Both CIN and SD are improved and WSH has become worse. Last season SD was the worst with -212 but now are only -120. That is nearly a 100 run improvement. CIN was -116 yet now they are only -62. Those are two more competitive with bright futures. WSH, on the other hand, is nearly 100 runs worse than last season. 

I would recommend spending some time analyzing run differential to see if you can find anything that is worthy of making investments.

Sports Gambling Series: A Gambler's Resposnibilites

No matter how you play, you have responsibilities!

A gambler, or more specifically a sports gambler, must realize that there are responsibilities that come with the opportunity to make wagers. Now that the laws have changed opening up wagering to the rest of the USA, there will be many new players. Yes, I am sure you have heard all those winners out there pounding their chest sounding as if everybody is killing it. Certainly, a thought might be "I can too". Please note that every month for the last 4+ years the Las Vegas sportsbooks have won against the "bettor"! It is actually 57 consecutive winning months now so please don't quit your day job. Though it is true there are few that can show a consistent profit, learn from what they know and how they wager. 

First of all and most important of all. Your bankroll should be protected as much as you are trying to grow it. It is the goal to grow but that growth is a timely matter. Slow steady growth with some spurts of exceptional "runs" will get you to your goal. You should only be wagering the number of discretionary funds you have available. Do NOT ever wager dollars that are intended for living expenses. This is a Cardinal Sin! If you are selecting a handicapper to assist you with your selections, remember this, you control your bets. If you don't like the play or the amount suggested to wager, change it or eliminate it. Handicappers are a dime a dozen these days. A guy goes on a run for a week then decides he has the answers and begins selling services. Don't be the guy paying for advice from that kind of service. There are very reputable handicappers out there. Every service does NOT fit under the same umbrella. Build a relationship like you would with a stockbroker. It is virtually the same thing. A broker suggests companies to invest in and a handicapper suggests teams. The largest difference is the time required to get your result. A stock may take 6 months to see returns whereas a sporting event takes several hours. It is your money and you should spend it the way you want to. 

Learn some valuable suggestions to get started. Here is one. There are dozens of opportunities to make wagers every day which means hundreds over the course of a month. There is no reason to play every single one! Learn to be very selective. Only make wagers where you see there is an edge to the line that is given out. This is a very key element to master from the beginning of your new journey. You are not betting teams as much as you are betting against lines! Professional bettors only make wagers they view as +EV. +EV is Positive Expected Value. If you can make a line and compare it to the betting line, you might see the value to one side or the other which generates Expected Value. This is an opportunity to wager. If you only bet on +EV situations, you will over time win money wagering on sports. In truth, you will overtime win on anything you are wagering on including poker. Successful gamblers are good at math. Knowing when you have value and how much value is important. Learn to master EV! A side effect of this will limit the number of appropriate wagers you make. There should be no limit to +EV wagers meaning that however many you find, wager them all.

A key component that is often overlooked is having fun. In general, this is why you are gambling. It is fun and might put some extra dollars in your pocket. Keep things small so the stress that can come from large wagers doesn't creep in on the ability to entertain yourself with these games. Never get so invested into one wager that you are an emotional wreck. This is easier said than done but realize as we have discussed, there are many opportunities. You will learn that sports gambling will uncover many aspects of games you didn't see prior to wagering on them. You might know what a passed ball is and that they are few in occurrence, but there are more than just a couple games decided by them over the course of a season and if you are on the wrong side of one of those, it can make you crazy! Or how about a dropped fly ball or an intentional safety? Those things happen and they do affect the outcome of a wager. My advice is simple. Once the game starts, you are only along for the ride. Enjoy the ride as much as you can knowing you might be riding against the team you are riding with today tomorrow. You can't change anything, but if it is bad enough, change the channel!

As you go down your journey, practice these simple yet effective tools to get you started!

Good Luck

Scott 

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

It has become very apparent that it is time to differentiate between all the frauds and "fly by night" so-called handicappers.  Gambling Twitter has hundreds of frauds, fakes, and phonies. Let's finally put to rest all these guys by asking smart questions. It is your money! Make sure you are investing it wisely. Isn't that the purpose, to grow your bankroll?

Ask your guy "Why are we putting my money on this game? What is the Positive Expected Value? If he does not reply with some sort of percentage advantage, he is lost and making stuff up! Understanding Positive Expected Value is straightforward for Casino gambling, but a little more problematic for sports wagering. In a casino, the odds of an outcome are always known. The payout is always known, so you can easily determine if your wagering with the best of the odds. I am providing an article written by a bookmaker so the examples he uses are best to follow. When it comes to sports wagering, the outcomes are not known, so there is more room for error and interpretation. I liken it to poker odds. For example, you know what is in your hand, you know what the drawing odds are, and you know the what cards are on the table. You don't know what the other guy has, so you are only assuming his hand strength based on his actions up to this point. Knowing what you can beat will help you wager correctly in this circumstance. Sports gambling applies in a similar way. You know the bookmaker odds, you know what teams are playing, and you know the players that will impact the outcome. However, you do not know the outcome. You must find the implied probability of the outcome then compare it to the bookmakers odds. If you have Positive Expected Value, then you are putting your money in good and over time will be profitable.

Let's make a deal! From now on, you will no longer cry about being taken advantage of by these trashy fraudulent marketers. You will educate yourself. You will only utilize the true handicappers out there. You will become a better gambler!

Here is the article. 

How to Calculate And Use Expected Value

If I asked you to explain expected value and how it relates to sports betting, how much could you tell me?  My guess is, not a whole lot. Don't be concerned. You are not alone. Most people reading this article will be the same. Similar to calculating a bookmakers margins, being able to calculate expected value is something you must know how to do.

What Is Expected Value

The easiest way to understand expected value (EV) is to break it down to its simplest form. EV is a calculation used to determine whether a bet has a positive or negative profit expectation. For example, If you are playing roulette and put a $1 chip on all 36 numbers and another on zero, you will have risked a total of $37. After the spin, 36 of your bets will lose, and one bet will win. You will earn $35 of profit and get your chip back for a total of $36. A net loss of $1. If you divide your net loss of -1$ by your risk of $37, you get -1.027. The -0.027 represents a loss in cents per dollar risked. You will lose 2.7 cents per dollar bet on roulette.

Applying Expected Value to Sports Betting

For casino games where probability outcomes are known, calculating expected value is straightforward. Calculating EV in sports betting, however, can be tricky. Unlike games of chance, calculating expected value for a specific sports bet before the game starts is not possible. This is a very important point and one bettors often confuse. Because the true probabilities of outcomes are not known until the game is complete, any attempt to speculate on the EV of a sports wager would be an estimate at best. An easier way of thinking about the true application of expected value in sports betting would be to refer to it as Profit Expectation instead. Profit expectation can be used to determine the skill of a bettor using his results over an extended period of time. For example, You make 100 wagers at even money for $1 each. You end up winning 55 and losing 45 for a profit of $10. If you divide $10 by 100, you determine that you have a profit expectation of 0.1 or 10%. By comparing the probability of the outcome with the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you can determine if you have a positive profit expectation. Not all bettors with positive profit history are skilled bettors. Luck plays a large role in the success of gambling. Calculating profit expectation will tell you how much luck is influencing the true result. Knowing that you have a positive expectancy is a way to validate your methods. This is the principal of value betting at its finest. Knowing that you have a negative expectancy allows you to save yourself from continuing to chase bad wagers and promote making a change. 

Don't Be Biased When Calculating

I encourage you to go back through your wager history and gather enough data so you can determine your profit expectancy. Looking at these figures without bias can be difficult. It takes a lot to accept that luck plays a part in your results and your wins and losses are not dictated solely by your predictive ability and decisions you make. If you approach your history without bias, you will be able to identify if your betting methods will provide you long-term success, or not. Don't worry if the results are not what you want to see. Accept them for what they are and build on them. Self-awareness is important. You are the only person holding you back from changing a negative profit expectaion into a positive one.

Why we stand apart & our promise to you. #Settingthestandard #WebbieWins

Why we stand apart and our promise to you.

Odds makers are not Idiots!

Odds Makers are Not Idiots!

Major League Baseball has a unique "game" within the game aspect. A pitcher has gone thru his pregame study of the hitters he will be facing. He has charted the pitches from the prior game to get a feel for developing a strategy to get the hitters to make outs. He goes thru a pregame meeting with the catcher so they are in sync with the game plan. The hitters watch tape of their swings to make minor adjustments to improve their execution of it, then they study the pitcher on tape. They see where the release point is, they analyze his strong pitches and weak ones. They make a game plan on how to attack the pitcher. All this leads to game action, where the batter steps into the box and the pitcher receive the sign from the catcher. Then it is a matter of who executes best! 

I tell that story to tell this one. Odds Makers are extremely proficient at what they do. Their job is to be nice and friendly with the gambler but to make their casino money. That is an exceptionally fine line to walk. They have to write lines that draw action yet put themselves in profitable situations. They have to analyze numbers, data, but most important predict the future action on the games. They make adjustments to get wagers on both sides of the games but also to give them a favorable edge over the general public. Make no mistake. The sportsbook is a FOR PROFIT organization. We gamblers and handicappers have to wager the lines set by the Odds Makers. We come up with all kinds of ways to beat them. I have seen trends, systems, guessing, data analysis, computer algorithms and much more. This is the "game" within the game aspect of sports wagering.

Do not disrespect the line that is made! It has a definite purpose. Have you ever wondered why a line that was released was not a point or half a point different? There is a reason for the value it shows. The best way to beat the Odds Maker is to beat his line with yours. Your line MUST be true odds. His line is slanted to drive profit in his sportsbook. This where EV (Expected Value) can be measured. Once you learn how to make your own lines, you will be able to see through some of the smokescreens the Odds Makers put out there. Just a side note, if you are having someone else handicap games for you and make suggestions for which to wager on, they better be able to give the EV for that wager! BIG red flags should go up if they can't!

You MUST be great at team analysis and cutting-edge data analysis. Odds Makers have their "power ratings" that they base the lines on. We can find superior data and superior team analysis as edges over the Odds Makers. An edge is defined as anything that creates EV over the betting line. Once we have established those edges, we now have to get into the batter's box and take a swing at the Odds Makers' pitch. This requires us to analyze the line. What is the purpose of it? Has it moved in any direction and if so, why? Do we have any data on how much dollar volume has been wagered? This is the part where you can be the best analyst in the world and still be a losing gambler! You MUST get very proficient at reading the lines or in other terms, seeing the pitches. Ever see a batter look like a fool because of a swing and miss or get "jelly legs" due to a curveball? This is exactly what we look like when we miss our wagers! Be a tough out and know what you are doing every step of the way! Prepare better, analyze better, read the line better, and above all respect your opponent!

    

Bankroll Management

Bankroll Management

There are many aspects to gambling on sports. There are different types of sports, many types of wagers and one should be good at team analysis. There is also the number you have to beat. Remember this, novice gamblers bet teams, pro gamblers bet the best number as it provides the pro with a positive expected value (EV). The real issue becoming successful is that you can do all this right and still be a loser. One might wonder, "how is that statement true?" The answer is bankroll management. It is a Wednesday night and you have selected a "lock" can't miss game based on all the proper analysis from above. You have a great line and positive EV. However, the game is in the 3rd inning with your team ahead by 2 runs. All of the sudden the rains come pouring down producing a 2.5-hour rain delay. When the teams come back out, they both have new pitchers. Your team doesn't respond well and they end up losing the game by 1 run! There are no guarantees in sports betting. You can do everything right and still have something happen. If you properly wagered on the game, you will not take a big hit to your bankroll, but if you are like the masses,  you probably stepped way out and wagered an amount over your bankroll means and now are trying to figure out how you are going get out of this hole you find yourself in. If you want to become a successful investor in sports games, you must determine the proper strategy for managing your bankroll. This is a separate skill set that is required and one we will further discuss.

Your bankroll is defined as monies dedicated to placing your wagers on the games. It is not your rent money, not your electric bill money, nor is it you car payment money. The sole purpose of this money is to wager on games. You must first decide how much money you have for a bankroll. This should be a relatively easy task. You know how much "extra" money you have, use it to fund your bankroll. 

Now we have an established bankroll to use. We must determine the appropriate way to manage this fund. It starts by determining what kind of risk taker you are. Determining that is easier than you think. If you were to deplete your bankroll, would you be able to make a new one or would you be done gambling for awhile until you could get back in the game? Simple question, yet the answer is important. If re-establishing your account is no problem, then your first risk taker profile is high because you can always re-up at any time. If you cannot re-establish your account, then you have a low risk taker profile. Since you must play to stay in the game, you will be somewhat working backward. All of your wagers must consider your total in the account before you make them hence working backward. A couple of simple examples. Player A can re-up his bankroll and he starts with $500. He can wager 5 games at $100 each anytime he likes. Player B cannot re-up his bankroll for 5 months. He is in a position where he needs to determine what percentage of his bankroll he can afford to risk for the day so he is not in jeopardy of being out of the game. Let's say he wants to bet the same games as Player A and has the same amount of his bankroll. He may decide that 20% of his bankroll being exposed at any given time is his threshold so he can only wager $125 for the day which also means he can only put in play $25 per game. Huge difference right?

Now we have established the main risk profile of the player, we must determine the purpose of wagering in the first place. We must do this so we can then set some parameters and realistic goals. There are many reasons why we gamble on the games. Some have expendable income and want to make quick money fast, others want to establish a routine and grow their bankroll like a savings account would grow incrementally. If you are not worried about losing then wagering larger and wagering on many opportunities could be a perfect style for you. Your returns on wins will be higher but your wins will be fewer, so the idea is to win the larger bet games and the highest odds games to maximize those wins. If you are growing or grinding your account with disciplined wagers, you will have more wins but not get rich quick. Your bankroll will grow incrementally but at a higher percentage rate than in a savings account. This style will also allow you to accept any losing streaks that happen to everyone. Your results should be judged over months, not days or weeks. Just like the stock market or any other investment options, sports wagering is volatile and will have many ups and downs. Most novice wagerers find this frustrating and it generally leads to their demise.

We now have determined your bankroll and your style, so how do we establish parameters and realistic goals? Parameters are your guard rails. We utilize a strategy to best position ourselves for the least amount of loss and the most amount of profit. For the loose players with no intention of grinding out wagers, your parameters should start with maximizing results as long as you have the ability to re-up your bankroll or are a short-term player looking to score. I highly recommend looking backward from a standpoint of return. Say you have $500 in your bankroll. You may not have a specific dollar growth expectancy but you should be trying to max out your wagers. You should not be deciding which one game to make a double or nothing wager, but that is sort of what I am talking about. You should be thinking about how much money you are going make not how much money to hold back to use tomorrow, you need a guardrail around the quality of games you are wagering. Every day offers a menu of games to wager on. Remember that tomorrow offers opportunities if there is not the "step out" wager game today. For tonight's menu, maybe play smaller strung together wagers where your risk is small yet return is high. As an example, tonight play a 3 team parlay and a 2 team parlay hoping to hit both but if you win one, they will more than cover each other generating a small profit. You are strategically maximizing lesser quality to get the highest return. Keep in mind, you are not holding back and not worried about losing your bankroll. Then tomorrow, play a strategically large wager on the best game on the board to maximize that opportunity. 

It is a much more disciplined approach for the grinder type wagerer. Your wagers are always made with the intention to grow your bankroll incrementally and to minimize loss. In this scenario, we are not trying to maximize wins but to minimize loss and risk of bankroll depletion. We do this by setting limits on how much we can lose in a day and by being very selective in the wagers we make. This style will allow us to establish realistic goals which will create our guard rails. We need to understand what are realistic goals? As shown above, you can risk any amount at any time, and in the short-term outlook and make some money or often times, lose all of your money. However, if you are trying to make this a steady part-time income or full-time career, you'll need to know what that looks like. This style requires a large bankroll. We are investing a part of our bankroll each day. We find the best positive EV opportunities then make consistent "unit" wagers based on strength of value. We are making only wagers that are EV positive.We will also expect to win these wagers at a 55% rate or higher. The win rate required is 52.38%. It's the break-even rate due to 10% vigorish at the bookmaker. Maintaining this bankroll requires having 6% or less of your bankroll on wagers in action pending results at any given time. This parameter allows for losses and losing streaks without compromising the 1 unit or 2 unit scale or depletion of the bankroll. It is important to maintain the scale to overcome bad days without changing your unit sizes. The 2 unit is the max bet. It can slightly vary in value because 6% is the max as it would be most allowable in play amount, however, you may have another wager to make at the same time. In that case, you might make the 2 unit wager 4% and the 1 unit wager 2% of the bankroll thus keeping the 6% in play the guardrail. We are not risking large portions of bankroll so we won't win large portions of money. This method requires the ability to beat the number more than the breakeven rate AND the discipline to limit the number of wagers resulting in exposing our bankroll to more than 6% in action opportunities. We need only to wager on the most premium of spots in this style. This is investment style wagering where we make money over time and get a solid return on our investment.

Here are some pitfalls to avoid.

Do not make a larger percentage wager than you should. Stay disciplined to your path and style.

Do not increase unit scales or sizes until your bankroll grows proportionately.

Chasing your losses is bad behavior and a sure means to bankroll mismanagement.

 

 

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I am an MLB Handicapper specialized in Sabermetrics with a combined old-school feel for the game. If you are into terms like regression, O-Swing%, Hard hit% or SIERA, you are gonna love what I do. I assure you, I break down games and performances like no handicapper you have seen before using new school analytics. I apply that data to DFS lineups and handicapping edges! 

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MLB Regression via Game Score

Regression measured thru Game Score

What is regression and Game Score and why should it matter in handicapping? Let’s get some definitions we can work with. First is for regression. I am using the terminology of “regression to the mean”. This is copied directly from a Google search. “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Think in terms of outliers. Going in the direction more extreme than another, the outlier is not the mean (average bar). Humans are not machines and have progression and regression toward the mean. If we could gauge those “outliers”, then we could bet on those opportunities they present. Here is where Game Score comes in.

What is Game Score? The next few lines are copied directly from Fangraphs. “Game Score was originally created by Bill James to measure the quality of individual starts.” “Calculating Game Score (original or v2) is extremely simple, requiring some basic addition, subtraction, and multiplication. The original Game Score is calculated like this:

Game Score = 50 + Outs + 2*(IP Completed After the 4th) + Strikeouts – Hits – 4*Earned Runs – 2*Unearned Runs – Walks”

Game Score tries to answer the fundamental question, “how good was that start?

Fundamentally, it is important to use Game Score because the Win stat for a pitcher does not indicate the performance of the pitcher nor if the performance was above or below mean average.  Ok. So now we know what Game Score is, how to calculate it and why it is important. 

Now how do we use it? I string together the last 7 starts for a pitcher and cut them up into segments. Seven games are roughly 21% of a season and at a glance is a good representation of current performance. Here are the charts I use on my spreadsheet.

The charts on the left are the actual GSc from the past seven games. The chart on the right shows the average GSc for a segment of games. The 1^st box is last 7 games, then the last 3 games, then the last game and finally the year to date. The box GSc vs OPP is the GSc vs the team pitching against. In the example above, Graveman is 58 over his L7 which is significantly better than ytd. His last 3 and his last game also indicate he is above his ytd. The ytd is the mean. This tells me that Graveman is going to regress soon. It may not be today but other factors may lead to believe that. Such as how he fares on the road, if key hitters light him up if he struggles vs the team he is facing and so forth. I assure you though, he will regress soon. The colors in the chart reflect poor performances (green light) or great performances (yellow light). They are also great information. Getting to a mean requires outliers, and those are them. Yellow means the pitcher is like to regress back to his average mean and green means the pitcher is likely to progress to his mean. Over time, you will be able to pin down opportunities you didn’t know were even there. A Sabermetric way to way performance that predicts the future. Pretty cool!

Projections Update National League

Baseball Prospectus National Projections as 03/05

This league is much tighter than in the AL. LAD is the largest advantage of 10 games over 2nd ARI in the league. There is only 1 60 win team projected (MIA 66) so the bottom is improving. WSH has an 8 game edge and CHC a 7 game edge. They have ARI and STL as the wildcard teams. It is a very convoluted wild card race though. ARI, STL will have to contend with MIL, SF and possibly the NYM. 

There is nothing I disagree with here. I have the league taking shape the exact same way. However, I do like ARI more than most. LAD will fall back to the pack more in 2018 narrowing the margin thus giving ARI an opportunity to close in. ARI was 11-8 vs LAD in 2017. They also led the WEST with 45 wins. LAD was 3rd with 41 wins (2nd went to COL 42 wins). ARI pitching is close and LAD will need to repeat the dominance from Wood of last season. It is hard to assume he will be that good again. LAD still has the better offense but again will need to get identical strong performances from guys who were rookies in 2017. The common trend is to see some regression from those players. 

I do like STL to overtake MIL. MIL does not have the starting pitching to match up with either CHC or STL. 

As you can see above, there is not one spot in the rotation that will favor MIL. This is a concern for a team that brought in Cain and Yelich. It will also play Braun at 1B so learning a new position. They are a pitcher or two away from contending in 2018. 

SF made a huge transition in the offseason. They are much better than the worst team in MLB as they were a season ago. Yet, the "hot stove" champs are usually not the go-to team for the regular season. Remember ARI, SD, and CHW of the past few seasons. 

The NYM is the most intriguing to me. I like their new manager Mickey Callaway. I also like they have invested in the training department. They will get Syndergaard back and he is an "ACE". He will go alongside DeGrom making a solid one-two punch at the top of the staff. If they can get some offense, they might surprise some and make a run for the wildcard spots. 

Projection Updates! American League

Baseball Prospectus Updated Projections as of 03/05

Most analysts believe the AL East will be the only competitive division for the top spot in the 2018 season and I believe that as well. It is noteworthy though that these projections show the AL East to be the competitive, yet still an 8 game variance to 2nd spot. They also indicate how far it is to reach the AL Central and AL West top spots as CLE is 14 games better and HOU is 19 games better than 2nd spot. Lastly, this would indicate BOS and TAM as wildcard teams for the playoffs. 

I do agree with NYY as the front-runner and I also agree that 7-9 games will be the margin. I know many feel that JD Martinez fills the gap between the teams' offense and that is the case. However, the margin is in relief pitching. The NYY have an RP WAR of 7.2 and BOS 3.9. There is no question as to has the best bullpen. The current starting pitching is virtually even. Baseball Prospectus might see it that NYY has the better offense too, hence the 8 game margin. NYY was 11-8 vs BOS in 2017. NYY had 44 and BOS 41 wins in the AL East in 2017. Stanton is an MVP player and Martinez is maybe an All-Star player. NYY has the edge and the AL East will go through them.

I also agree that the other divisions are extremely top heavy. CLE and HOU are the best teams in those divisions and it is not even close. It would not surprise me to see 100+ wins for both of those teams. 

I do not agree with TAM projection of being a wildcard team. I believe they are more .500 type team with a downward arrow of being below that target. I am not sold on Kevin Cash as their manager. They are also worse defensively than they have been. It is hard to replace 2 starters (Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb), the face of their franchise (Evan Longoria), an All-Star from 2017(Corey Dickerson) and a rising star(Steven Souza Jr). I believe BOS will take one of the wildcard spots and MIN will take the other. I like MIN because they play in the Central. They will get 57 games versus the worst teams in the AL (19 each vs. CHW, DET, KC). Their offense is very good. If their pitching can hold up, this will be a playoff team. They will have a scheduling edge against teams like LAA and SEA. The wildcard race will be the interesting watch in the AL. 

Chicago Cubs Team Preview from my preseason book

Chicago Cubs

2017 92-70 1st division | Playoff team went to NLCS lost to LAD in 5 games

2017 HOME 48-33 | AWAY 44-37

2017 BATTING WAR 26.7 PITCHING WAR 15.9 TOTAL WAR 42.6

2018 Projections: BAT WAR 27.3 | PIT WAR 22.6 | TOT WAR 49.9

Their WAR total ranked 5th but that is a misleading headline. Their offense was 10th and their defense was #1. WAR does consider defense unless listed as OFF. As they were the defending champs, they got off to a slow start. In fact, they were .500 (40-40) as of July 1st. Their offense finished 4th in runs scored. They ranked 9th in HRs and 10th in IOS (extra base hit gauge). They did find ways to get on base. Their wOBA was 5th and BB% was 2nd! Their bat avg was 16th so those BBs really helped. Their largest weakness was baserunning and clutch hitting. Their rank in BsR was 24 and -6.6 runs to average. They ranked 26th in CLUTCH hitting. The starting pitching was not like their championship year. They were 3rd in 2016 but fell to 10th last season. The ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05.

They were 19th in HR/9. They were bad in the CLUTCH like their hitters. They ranked 27th. The bullpen ranked 14th which is up from 19th of their championship season. The ERA in the pen was 3.80 ranking 6th.

They were led by Kris Bryant. He delivered 6.7 WAR and was in the MVP conversation. He led with 111 runs scored and 146 wRC+. He batted .295 and was a positively rated defender too. Anthony Rizzo earned 4.0 WAR. All-Star caliber. He led with 32 HRs and 109 RBI. He a negatively rated defender. Wilson Contreras provided 3.2 WAR in his 1st full season as C. He too like most Cubs, is a positive defender as well. Javier Baez earned 2.2 WAR. He was versatile in playing 4 positions (1B, 2B. SS, 3B). Ian Happ produced 1.8 WAR. He hit 24 HRs but had a high K% of 31.2%. Addison Russel productivity was cut by more than half. He earned 1.4 in 2017, but 3.9 in 2016. He is more of a defender, but 2017 was his worst so far.

The 2018 offense will be led by the same guys. Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Bryant again MVP quality and Rizzo with Contreras All-Star worthy. Russell projects to have a resurgence. He is expected to have 2.8 WAR. Jayson Heyward shows up with 2.2. Happ with an improved 2.1. Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist will get some at-bats, but it looks like they will be sharing roles. Baez will be the 2B for the Cubs so Zobrist will play some LF.

The pitchers were led by Jon Lester and his 2.7 WAR. 4 of their main 5 were above 2.0 but no one into 3.0. Big time pitchers get well over that mark. Lester started 32 games but ended up with 4.33 ERA. Kyle Hendricks made 24 starts due to injury. He had 2.5 WAR and had the lowest ERA of 3.03. He is tough with guys on base. His LOB% was 82.5%. Jake Arrieta made 30 starts and led with 14 wins. He turned in 2.4 WAR. Newcomer Jose Quintana gave them 2.0 WAR in only 14 starts. CHI was 10-4 in games he started. He swept September going 5-0 with an ERA of 2.51! John Lackey

made 30 starts. His WAR was 0.5. Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler picked up games when the others were out.

Now for some fun. The offseason in CHI has not been quiet. They signed Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood! Quintana projects at 4.8 WAR, Darvish with 4.2 WAR. They immediately get 2 top of the rotation guys. Lester projects at 3.7 WAR. This sets up great matchups for their guys too. Most teams will not see this caliber starter at the #3 spot regardless of which one of these guys fill that role. Now throw in Hendricks as the #4! Very tough here. Chatwood is an improved #5 spot too. Plus, Montgomery can spot start when needed. In the bullpen, we have a new closer in Brandon Morrow. He replaces Wade Davis. He projects at 1.3 which is higher than Davis 1.1 from last season. Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson get more of the games this year. Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop are still there and will pitch often, but Maddon has new toys and will use them. 2018 pitching is deep and plentiful with talent!

The 2017 CHI won 92 games. The sabermetric standings suggest they lost 4 games more than they should have to make 96 wins a more accurate total. CHI was +127 runs in Run Differential. BOS was +117 with 93 wins. The Run Differential does not support the extra games. We will adjust down to 94 wins as the most accurate gauge of performance in 2017. The projections call for 92 or 89 wins. I believe this pitching staff has dramatically improved therefore 89 wins is too low. I also can not seem them worse than last year final record of 94 wins. The division is improved with STL adding hitters and MIL rising with young talent. Based on competition, I can see how we should not be overly optimistic. I do expect CHC to be the team to beat. My team wins total for CHC is 96 wins.

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