2019 Houston Astros Preview

Houston Astros

       HOU was the defending World Champs. They ran into injury trouble and slow start, but they still won 103 games. I contend that HOU was the best team in MLB last season. Their adjusted win standings show a .667 win percentage which is 108 wins (BOS should have won less at 104). Anyway, the games are real and not played in data alternative environment. This team was pushed down the stretch. OAK would not go away and finished with 97 wins. SEA drove the 1^st half of the season to make HOU work, so they had no joy ride to win the division.

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       Surprisingly, HOU was not that impressive at home. They won 46 games which ranks 12^th. Their home game run differential was +81 or 5^th. They had the best pitching in MLB last season which helped the run differential. What was impressive was their road dominance. HOU won 57 away games going 57-24 for the best in MLB. Their away run differential was +189! They were far and away the most dominant road team. HOU had the best run differential in MLB with +270. This easily validates the adjusted standings.

          The difference between HOU, BOS and NYY is the offense. HOU ranks 5^th in OFF (behind BOS and NYY). HOU scored 797 runs whereas BOS had 876 and NYY had 851. They put the ball in play, don’t strike out but have slightly less power, ranking 10^th in ISO. HOU pitchers made them so good last season. The 2017 team was awesome hitting as well as pitching. I have included 2017 hitters and 2018.

Notice the decline in Altuve, Correa, Springer, Gonzalez etc. Only Bregman was better last season. This is good news for their 2019 outlook. A common theme has been difficulty comping your best seasons, and this again rang true for HOU. However, a resurgence can be expected as well.

       HOU was #1 in pitching last season (starters #2, relievers #3). HOU starters threw the 2^nd most innings in MLB and were the only group to have 10+ K/9 (10.37). They had the lowest FIP with 3.28. They had 4 guys with 30+ starts. Justin Verlander led with 34. He also had a 6.8 WAR with 2.78 FIP! Gerrit Cole made 32 starts producing 6.3 WAR with a 2.70 FIP. These two were as dominant as any pair in MLB. Dallas Keuchel made 34 starts with 3.6 WAR and Charlie Morton 30 starts with a 3.1 WAR. Lance McCullers went down and had Tommy John surgery although he did make 22 starts. HOU bullpen is very good. They had 4 guys earn over 1.0 WAR. McHugh 1.4, Rondon 1.3, Harris 1.2 and Pressly 1.0. Osuna became their closer late last season. He had 1.99 ERA and 12 Saves in 23 games.

          HOU made some changes for the 2019 season. Michael Brantley comes in to play OF and Robinson Chirinos will catch. The best news is the hitting projections. Bregman leads with 5.5 WAR so he should be a perennial All-Star with some MVP discussion. Altuve is back up to 4.6 WAR. Springer at 4.0 WAR and Correa 4.5 WAR. These are the 4 guys that stir this mix and they all should be at peak performance. Brantley projects with 2.0 WAR being a solid starter.

The starters suffer a bit this season. Verlander and Cole are back and will still be very good. They lose Morton, Keuchel and McCullers will not be on the roster this season. They are planning on Joshua James who filled in for McCullers last season to continue to develop. They just signed Wade Miley as an insurance policy, but he pitched well last season (3.59 FIP). McHugh may move into a starting role. All of this is just waiting on their real answer, Forrest Whitley. He is due on the scene this season. A comparison would be Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. He is very talented and will make an impact once he gets his feet wet in the big leagues. The bullpen will benefit from Osuna and Pressly for the entire season making it deeper and more talented.

       I am high on HOU. I am using 108 as a starting point from 2018. However, this is tricky. I foresee them better on offense, but worse and less deep on the mound. Pitching matters and was the reason this team was so run differential strong in 2018. I don’t see that as the case this year. Winning 100 games is tough, but their division is not as strong this year. SEA went into sell-off and OAK has no pitchers. I think they could win near 100 games despite losing their pitchers. Their projection is only 95. I think that is a very large drop, but I will shade towards a lower end number of wins. I think 98 wins seems reasonable assumption for HOU.

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