Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

It has become very apparent that it is time to differentiate between all the frauds and "fly by night" so-called handicappers.  Gambling Twitter has hundreds of frauds, fakes, and phonies. Let's finally put to rest all these guys by asking smart questions. It is your money! Make sure you are investing it wisely. Isn't that the purpose, to grow your bankroll?

Ask your guy "Why are we putting my money on this game? What is the Positive Expected Value? If he does not reply with some sort of percentage advantage, he is lost and making stuff up! Understanding Positive Expected Value is straightforward for Casino gambling, but a little more problematic for sports wagering. In a casino, the odds of an outcome are always known. The payout is always known, so you can easily determine if your wagering with the best of the odds. I am providing an article written by a bookmaker so the examples he uses are best to follow. When it comes to sports wagering, the outcomes are not known, so there is more room for error and interpretation. I liken it to poker odds. For example, you know what is in your hand, you know what the drawing odds are, and you know the what cards are on the table. You don't know what the other guy has, so you are only assuming his hand strength based on his actions up to this point. Knowing what you can beat will help you wager correctly in this circumstance. Sports gambling applies in a similar way. You know the bookmaker odds, you know what teams are playing, and you know the players that will impact the outcome. However, you do not know the outcome. You must find the implied probability of the outcome then compare it to the bookmakers odds. If you have Positive Expected Value, then you are putting your money in good and over time will be profitable.

Let's make a deal! From now on, you will no longer cry about being taken advantage of by these trashy fraudulent marketers. You will educate yourself. You will only utilize the true handicappers out there. You will become a better gambler!

Here is the article. 

How to Calculate And Use Expected Value

If I asked you to explain expected value and how it relates to sports betting, how much could you tell me?  My guess is, not a whole lot. Don't be concerned. You are not alone. Most people reading this article will be the same. Similar to calculating a bookmakers margins, being able to calculate expected value is something you must know how to do.

What Is Expected Value

The easiest way to understand expected value (EV) is to break it down to its simplest form. EV is a calculation used to determine whether a bet has a positive or negative profit expectation. For example, If you are playing roulette and put a $1 chip on all 36 numbers and another on zero, you will have risked a total of $37. After the spin, 36 of your bets will lose, and one bet will win. You will earn $35 of profit and get your chip back for a total of $36. A net loss of $1. If you divide your net loss of -1$ by your risk of $37, you get -1.027. The -0.027 represents a loss in cents per dollar risked. You will lose 2.7 cents per dollar bet on roulette.

Applying Expected Value to Sports Betting

For casino games where probability outcomes are known, calculating expected value is straightforward. Calculating EV in sports betting, however, can be tricky. Unlike games of chance, calculating expected value for a specific sports bet before the game starts is not possible. This is a very important point and one bettors often confuse. Because the true probabilities of outcomes are not known until the game is complete, any attempt to speculate on the EV of a sports wager would be an estimate at best. An easier way of thinking about the true application of expected value in sports betting would be to refer to it as Profit Expectation instead. Profit expectation can be used to determine the skill of a bettor using his results over an extended period of time. For example, You make 100 wagers at even money for $1 each. You end up winning 55 and losing 45 for a profit of $10. If you divide $10 by 100, you determine that you have a profit expectation of 0.1 or 10%. By comparing the probability of the outcome with the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you can determine if you have a positive profit expectation. Not all bettors with positive profit history are skilled bettors. Luck plays a large role in the success of gambling. Calculating profit expectation will tell you how much luck is influencing the true result. Knowing that you have a positive expectancy is a way to validate your methods. This is the principal of value betting at its finest. Knowing that you have a negative expectancy allows you to save yourself from continuing to chase bad wagers and promote making a change. 

Don't Be Biased When Calculating

I encourage you to go back through your wager history and gather enough data so you can determine your profit expectancy. Looking at these figures without bias can be difficult. It takes a lot to accept that luck plays a part in your results and your wins and losses are not dictated solely by your predictive ability and decisions you make. If you approach your history without bias, you will be able to identify if your betting methods will provide you long-term success, or not. Don't worry if the results are not what you want to see. Accept them for what they are and build on them. Self-awareness is important. You are the only person holding you back from changing a negative profit expectaion into a positive one.

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Odds makers are not Idiots!

Odds Makers are Not Idiots!

Major League Baseball has a unique "game" within the game aspect. A pitcher has gone thru his pregame study of the hitters he will be facing. He has charted the pitches from the prior game to get a feel for developing a strategy to get the hitters to make outs. He goes thru a pregame meeting with the catcher so they are in sync with the game plan. The hitters watch tape of their swings to make minor adjustments to improve their execution of it, then they study the pitcher on tape. They see where the release point is, they analyze his strong pitches and weak ones. They make a game plan on how to attack the pitcher. All this leads to game action, where the batter steps into the box and the pitcher receive the sign from the catcher. Then it is a matter of who executes best! 

I tell that story to tell this one. Odds Makers are extremely proficient at what they do. Their job is to be nice and friendly with the gambler but to make their casino money. That is an exceptionally fine line to walk. They have to write lines that draw action yet put themselves in profitable situations. They have to analyze numbers, data, but most important predict the future action on the games. They make adjustments to get wagers on both sides of the games but also to give them a favorable edge over the general public. Make no mistake. The sportsbook is a FOR PROFIT organization. We gamblers and handicappers have to wager the lines set by the Odds Makers. We come up with all kinds of ways to beat them. I have seen trends, systems, guessing, data analysis, computer algorithms and much more. This is the "game" within the game aspect of sports wagering.

Do not disrespect the line that is made! It has a definite purpose. Have you ever wondered why a line that was released was not a point or half a point different? There is a reason for the value it shows. The best way to beat the Odds Maker is to beat his line with yours. Your line MUST be true odds. His line is slanted to drive profit in his sportsbook. This where EV (Expected Value) can be measured. Once you learn how to make your own lines, you will be able to see through some of the smokescreens the Odds Makers put out there. Just a side note, if you are having someone else handicap games for you and make suggestions for which to wager on, they better be able to give the EV for that wager! BIG red flags should go up if they can't!

You MUST be great at team analysis and cutting-edge data analysis. Odds Makers have their "power ratings" that they base the lines on. We can find superior data and superior team analysis as edges over the Odds Makers. An edge is defined as anything that creates EV over the betting line. Once we have established those edges, we now have to get into the batter's box and take a swing at the Odds Makers' pitch. This requires us to analyze the line. What is the purpose of it? Has it moved in any direction and if so, why? Do we have any data on how much dollar volume has been wagered? This is the part where you can be the best analyst in the world and still be a losing gambler! You MUST get very proficient at reading the lines or in other terms, seeing the pitches. Ever see a batter look like a fool because of a swing and miss or get "jelly legs" due to a curveball? This is exactly what we look like when we miss our wagers! Be a tough out and know what you are doing every step of the way! Prepare better, analyze better, read the line better, and above all respect your opponent!

    

Bankroll Management

Bankroll Management

There are many aspects to gambling on sports. There are different types of sports, many types of wagers and one should be good at team analysis. There is also the number you have to beat. Remember this, novice gamblers bet teams, pro gamblers bet the best number as it provides the pro with a positive expected value (EV). The real issue becoming successful is that you can do all this right and still be a loser. One might wonder, "how is that statement true?" The answer is bankroll management. It is a Wednesday night and you have selected a "lock" can't miss game based on all the proper analysis from above. You have a great line and positive EV. However, the game is in the 3rd inning with your team ahead by 2 runs. All of the sudden the rains come pouring down producing a 2.5-hour rain delay. When the teams come back out, they both have new pitchers. Your team doesn't respond well and they end up losing the game by 1 run! There are no guarantees in sports betting. You can do everything right and still have something happen. If you properly wagered on the game, you will not take a big hit to your bankroll, but if you are like the masses,  you probably stepped way out and wagered an amount over your bankroll means and now are trying to figure out how you are going get out of this hole you find yourself in. If you want to become a successful investor in sports games, you must determine the proper strategy for managing your bankroll. This is a separate skill set that is required and one we will further discuss.

Your bankroll is defined as monies dedicated to placing your wagers on the games. It is not your rent money, not your electric bill money, nor is it you car payment money. The sole purpose of this money is to wager on games. You must first decide how much money you have for a bankroll. This should be a relatively easy task. You know how much "extra" money you have, use it to fund your bankroll. 

Now we have an established bankroll to use. We must determine the appropriate way to manage this fund. It starts by determining what kind of risk taker you are. Determining that is easier than you think. If you were to deplete your bankroll, would you be able to make a new one or would you be done gambling for awhile until you could get back in the game? Simple question, yet the answer is important. If re-establishing your account is no problem, then your first risk taker profile is high because you can always re-up at any time. If you cannot re-establish your account, then you have a low risk taker profile. Since you must play to stay in the game, you will be somewhat working backward. All of your wagers must consider your total in the account before you make them hence working backward. A couple of simple examples. Player A can re-up his bankroll and he starts with $500. He can wager 5 games at $100 each anytime he likes. Player B cannot re-up his bankroll for 5 months. He is in a position where he needs to determine what percentage of his bankroll he can afford to risk for the day so he is not in jeopardy of being out of the game. Let's say he wants to bet the same games as Player A and has the same amount of his bankroll. He may decide that 20% of his bankroll being exposed at any given time is his threshold so he can only wager $125 for the day which also means he can only put in play $25 per game. Huge difference right?

Now we have established the main risk profile of the player, we must determine the purpose of wagering in the first place. We must do this so we can then set some parameters and realistic goals. There are many reasons why we gamble on the games. Some have expendable income and want to make quick money fast, others want to establish a routine and grow their bankroll like a savings account would grow incrementally. If you are not worried about losing then wagering larger and wagering on many opportunities could be a perfect style for you. Your returns on wins will be higher but your wins will be fewer, so the idea is to win the larger bet games and the highest odds games to maximize those wins. If you are growing or grinding your account with disciplined wagers, you will have more wins but not get rich quick. Your bankroll will grow incrementally but at a higher percentage rate than in a savings account. This style will also allow you to accept any losing streaks that happen to everyone. Your results should be judged over months, not days or weeks. Just like the stock market or any other investment options, sports wagering is volatile and will have many ups and downs. Most novice wagerers find this frustrating and it generally leads to their demise.

We now have determined your bankroll and your style, so how do we establish parameters and realistic goals? Parameters are your guard rails. We utilize a strategy to best position ourselves for the least amount of loss and the most amount of profit. For the loose players with no intention of grinding out wagers, your parameters should start with maximizing results as long as you have the ability to re-up your bankroll or are a short-term player looking to score. I highly recommend looking backward from a standpoint of return. Say you have $500 in your bankroll. You may not have a specific dollar growth expectancy but you should be trying to max out your wagers. You should not be deciding which one game to make a double or nothing wager, but that is sort of what I am talking about. You should be thinking about how much money you are going make not how much money to hold back to use tomorrow, you need a guardrail around the quality of games you are wagering. Every day offers a menu of games to wager on. Remember that tomorrow offers opportunities if there is not the "step out" wager game today. For tonight's menu, maybe play smaller strung together wagers where your risk is small yet return is high. As an example, tonight play a 3 team parlay and a 2 team parlay hoping to hit both but if you win one, they will more than cover each other generating a small profit. You are strategically maximizing lesser quality to get the highest return. Keep in mind, you are not holding back and not worried about losing your bankroll. Then tomorrow, play a strategically large wager on the best game on the board to maximize that opportunity. 

It is a much more disciplined approach for the grinder type wagerer. Your wagers are always made with the intention to grow your bankroll incrementally and to minimize loss. In this scenario, we are not trying to maximize wins but to minimize loss and risk of bankroll depletion. We do this by setting limits on how much we can lose in a day and by being very selective in the wagers we make. This style will allow us to establish realistic goals which will create our guard rails. We need to understand what are realistic goals? As shown above, you can risk any amount at any time, and in the short-term outlook and make some money or often times, lose all of your money. However, if you are trying to make this a steady part-time income or full-time career, you'll need to know what that looks like. This style requires a large bankroll. We are investing a part of our bankroll each day. We find the best positive EV opportunities then make consistent "unit" wagers based on strength of value. We are making only wagers that are EV positive.We will also expect to win these wagers at a 55% rate or higher. The win rate required is 52.38%. It's the break-even rate due to 10% vigorish at the bookmaker. Maintaining this bankroll requires having 6% or less of your bankroll on wagers in action pending results at any given time. This parameter allows for losses and losing streaks without compromising the 1 unit or 2 unit scale or depletion of the bankroll. It is important to maintain the scale to overcome bad days without changing your unit sizes. The 2 unit is the max bet. It can slightly vary in value because 6% is the max as it would be most allowable in play amount, however, you may have another wager to make at the same time. In that case, you might make the 2 unit wager 4% and the 1 unit wager 2% of the bankroll thus keeping the 6% in play the guardrail. We are not risking large portions of bankroll so we won't win large portions of money. This method requires the ability to beat the number more than the breakeven rate AND the discipline to limit the number of wagers resulting in exposing our bankroll to more than 6% in action opportunities. We need only to wager on the most premium of spots in this style. This is investment style wagering where we make money over time and get a solid return on our investment.

Here are some pitfalls to avoid.

Do not make a larger percentage wager than you should. Stay disciplined to your path and style.

Do not increase unit scales or sizes until your bankroll grows proportionately.

Chasing your losses is bad behavior and a sure means to bankroll mismanagement.

 

 

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I am an MLB Handicapper specialized in Sabermetrics with a combined old-school feel for the game. If you are into terms like regression, O-Swing%, Hard hit% or SIERA, you are gonna love what I do. I assure you, I break down games and performances like no handicapper you have seen before using new school analytics. I apply that data to DFS lineups and handicapping edges! 

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MLB Regression via Game Score

Regression measured thru Game Score

What is regression and Game Score and why should it matter in handicapping? Let’s get some definitions we can work with. First is for regression. I am using the terminology of “regression to the mean”. This is copied directly from a Google search. “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Think in terms of outliers. Going in the direction more extreme than another, the outlier is not the mean (average bar). Humans are not machines and have progression and regression toward the mean. If we could gauge those “outliers”, then we could bet on those opportunities they present. Here is where Game Score comes in.

What is Game Score? The next few lines are copied directly from Fangraphs. “Game Score was originally created by Bill James to measure the quality of individual starts.” “Calculating Game Score (original or v2) is extremely simple, requiring some basic addition, subtraction, and multiplication. The original Game Score is calculated like this:

Game Score = 50 + Outs + 2*(IP Completed After the 4th) + Strikeouts – Hits – 4*Earned Runs – 2*Unearned Runs – Walks”

Game Score tries to answer the fundamental question, “how good was that start?

Fundamentally, it is important to use Game Score because the Win stat for a pitcher does not indicate the performance of the pitcher nor if the performance was above or below mean average.  Ok. So now we know what Game Score is, how to calculate it and why it is important. 

Now how do we use it? I string together the last 7 starts for a pitcher and cut them up into segments. Seven games are roughly 21% of a season and at a glance is a good representation of current performance. Here are the charts I use on my spreadsheet.

The charts on the left are the actual GSc from the past seven games. The chart on the right shows the average GSc for a segment of games. The 1^st box is last 7 games, then the last 3 games, then the last game and finally the year to date. The box GSc vs OPP is the GSc vs the team pitching against. In the example above, Graveman is 58 over his L7 which is significantly better than ytd. His last 3 and his last game also indicate he is above his ytd. The ytd is the mean. This tells me that Graveman is going to regress soon. It may not be today but other factors may lead to believe that. Such as how he fares on the road, if key hitters light him up if he struggles vs the team he is facing and so forth. I assure you though, he will regress soon. The colors in the chart reflect poor performances (green light) or great performances (yellow light). They are also great information. Getting to a mean requires outliers, and those are them. Yellow means the pitcher is like to regress back to his average mean and green means the pitcher is likely to progress to his mean. Over time, you will be able to pin down opportunities you didn’t know were even there. A Sabermetric way to way performance that predicts the future. Pretty cool!

Projections Update National League

Baseball Prospectus National Projections as 03/05

This league is much tighter than in the AL. LAD is the largest advantage of 10 games over 2nd ARI in the league. There is only 1 60 win team projected (MIA 66) so the bottom is improving. WSH has an 8 game edge and CHC a 7 game edge. They have ARI and STL as the wildcard teams. It is a very convoluted wild card race though. ARI, STL will have to contend with MIL, SF and possibly the NYM. 

There is nothing I disagree with here. I have the league taking shape the exact same way. However, I do like ARI more than most. LAD will fall back to the pack more in 2018 narrowing the margin thus giving ARI an opportunity to close in. ARI was 11-8 vs LAD in 2017. They also led the WEST with 45 wins. LAD was 3rd with 41 wins (2nd went to COL 42 wins). ARI pitching is close and LAD will need to repeat the dominance from Wood of last season. It is hard to assume he will be that good again. LAD still has the better offense but again will need to get identical strong performances from guys who were rookies in 2017. The common trend is to see some regression from those players. 

I do like STL to overtake MIL. MIL does not have the starting pitching to match up with either CHC or STL. 

As you can see above, there is not one spot in the rotation that will favor MIL. This is a concern for a team that brought in Cain and Yelich. It will also play Braun at 1B so learning a new position. They are a pitcher or two away from contending in 2018. 

SF made a huge transition in the offseason. They are much better than the worst team in MLB as they were a season ago. Yet, the "hot stove" champs are usually not the go-to team for the regular season. Remember ARI, SD, and CHW of the past few seasons. 

The NYM is the most intriguing to me. I like their new manager Mickey Callaway. I also like they have invested in the training department. They will get Syndergaard back and he is an "ACE". He will go alongside DeGrom making a solid one-two punch at the top of the staff. If they can get some offense, they might surprise some and make a run for the wildcard spots. 

Projection Updates! American League

Baseball Prospectus Updated Projections as of 03/05

Most analysts believe the AL East will be the only competitive division for the top spot in the 2018 season and I believe that as well. It is noteworthy though that these projections show the AL East to be the competitive, yet still an 8 game variance to 2nd spot. They also indicate how far it is to reach the AL Central and AL West top spots as CLE is 14 games better and HOU is 19 games better than 2nd spot. Lastly, this would indicate BOS and TAM as wildcard teams for the playoffs. 

I do agree with NYY as the front-runner and I also agree that 7-9 games will be the margin. I know many feel that JD Martinez fills the gap between the teams' offense and that is the case. However, the margin is in relief pitching. The NYY have an RP WAR of 7.2 and BOS 3.9. There is no question as to has the best bullpen. The current starting pitching is virtually even. Baseball Prospectus might see it that NYY has the better offense too, hence the 8 game margin. NYY was 11-8 vs BOS in 2017. NYY had 44 and BOS 41 wins in the AL East in 2017. Stanton is an MVP player and Martinez is maybe an All-Star player. NYY has the edge and the AL East will go through them.

I also agree that the other divisions are extremely top heavy. CLE and HOU are the best teams in those divisions and it is not even close. It would not surprise me to see 100+ wins for both of those teams. 

I do not agree with TAM projection of being a wildcard team. I believe they are more .500 type team with a downward arrow of being below that target. I am not sold on Kevin Cash as their manager. They are also worse defensively than they have been. It is hard to replace 2 starters (Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb), the face of their franchise (Evan Longoria), an All-Star from 2017(Corey Dickerson) and a rising star(Steven Souza Jr). I believe BOS will take one of the wildcard spots and MIN will take the other. I like MIN because they play in the Central. They will get 57 games versus the worst teams in the AL (19 each vs. CHW, DET, KC). Their offense is very good. If their pitching can hold up, this will be a playoff team. They will have a scheduling edge against teams like LAA and SEA. The wildcard race will be the interesting watch in the AL. 

Chicago Cubs Team Preview from my preseason book

Chicago Cubs

2017 92-70 1st division | Playoff team went to NLCS lost to LAD in 5 games

2017 HOME 48-33 | AWAY 44-37

2017 BATTING WAR 26.7 PITCHING WAR 15.9 TOTAL WAR 42.6

2018 Projections: BAT WAR 27.3 | PIT WAR 22.6 | TOT WAR 49.9

Their WAR total ranked 5th but that is a misleading headline. Their offense was 10th and their defense was #1. WAR does consider defense unless listed as OFF. As they were the defending champs, they got off to a slow start. In fact, they were .500 (40-40) as of July 1st. Their offense finished 4th in runs scored. They ranked 9th in HRs and 10th in IOS (extra base hit gauge). They did find ways to get on base. Their wOBA was 5th and BB% was 2nd! Their bat avg was 16th so those BBs really helped. Their largest weakness was baserunning and clutch hitting. Their rank in BsR was 24 and -6.6 runs to average. They ranked 26th in CLUTCH hitting. The starting pitching was not like their championship year. They were 3rd in 2016 but fell to 10th last season. The ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05.

They were 19th in HR/9. They were bad in the CLUTCH like their hitters. They ranked 27th. The bullpen ranked 14th which is up from 19th of their championship season. The ERA in the pen was 3.80 ranking 6th.

They were led by Kris Bryant. He delivered 6.7 WAR and was in the MVP conversation. He led with 111 runs scored and 146 wRC+. He batted .295 and was a positively rated defender too. Anthony Rizzo earned 4.0 WAR. All-Star caliber. He led with 32 HRs and 109 RBI. He a negatively rated defender. Wilson Contreras provided 3.2 WAR in his 1st full season as C. He too like most Cubs, is a positive defender as well. Javier Baez earned 2.2 WAR. He was versatile in playing 4 positions (1B, 2B. SS, 3B). Ian Happ produced 1.8 WAR. He hit 24 HRs but had a high K% of 31.2%. Addison Russel productivity was cut by more than half. He earned 1.4 in 2017, but 3.9 in 2016. He is more of a defender, but 2017 was his worst so far.

The 2018 offense will be led by the same guys. Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Bryant again MVP quality and Rizzo with Contreras All-Star worthy. Russell projects to have a resurgence. He is expected to have 2.8 WAR. Jayson Heyward shows up with 2.2. Happ with an improved 2.1. Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist will get some at-bats, but it looks like they will be sharing roles. Baez will be the 2B for the Cubs so Zobrist will play some LF.

The pitchers were led by Jon Lester and his 2.7 WAR. 4 of their main 5 were above 2.0 but no one into 3.0. Big time pitchers get well over that mark. Lester started 32 games but ended up with 4.33 ERA. Kyle Hendricks made 24 starts due to injury. He had 2.5 WAR and had the lowest ERA of 3.03. He is tough with guys on base. His LOB% was 82.5%. Jake Arrieta made 30 starts and led with 14 wins. He turned in 2.4 WAR. Newcomer Jose Quintana gave them 2.0 WAR in only 14 starts. CHI was 10-4 in games he started. He swept September going 5-0 with an ERA of 2.51! John Lackey

made 30 starts. His WAR was 0.5. Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler picked up games when the others were out.

Now for some fun. The offseason in CHI has not been quiet. They signed Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood! Quintana projects at 4.8 WAR, Darvish with 4.2 WAR. They immediately get 2 top of the rotation guys. Lester projects at 3.7 WAR. This sets up great matchups for their guys too. Most teams will not see this caliber starter at the #3 spot regardless of which one of these guys fill that role. Now throw in Hendricks as the #4! Very tough here. Chatwood is an improved #5 spot too. Plus, Montgomery can spot start when needed. In the bullpen, we have a new closer in Brandon Morrow. He replaces Wade Davis. He projects at 1.3 which is higher than Davis 1.1 from last season. Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson get more of the games this year. Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop are still there and will pitch often, but Maddon has new toys and will use them. 2018 pitching is deep and plentiful with talent!

The 2017 CHI won 92 games. The sabermetric standings suggest they lost 4 games more than they should have to make 96 wins a more accurate total. CHI was +127 runs in Run Differential. BOS was +117 with 93 wins. The Run Differential does not support the extra games. We will adjust down to 94 wins as the most accurate gauge of performance in 2017. The projections call for 92 or 89 wins. I believe this pitching staff has dramatically improved therefore 89 wins is too low. I also can not seem them worse than last year final record of 94 wins. The division is improved with STL adding hitters and MIL rising with young talent. Based on competition, I can see how we should not be overly optimistic. I do expect CHC to be the team to beat. My team wins total for CHC is 96 wins.

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