It is a MUST to have analytics in your handicapping in todays game breakdowns

"Trends don't pay the rent."

Sports statistics has advanced to a point where information is a gambler,s weapon to exploiting Vegas odds makers. A perfect example of this is from this weekend NFL games. Specifically, the Pittsburgh and Jacksonville game. 

The narrative that Pittsburgh was revenge minded and would avenge their loss where they threw 5 interceptions and were routed 30-9 was great story line. In fact, there were many trends favoring this theory. For example, a favorite of 7 or 7.5 in the Divisional round, is 20-5 straight up, PIT is 11-1 against the spread at home revenging an upset loss and the Jaguars are 2-6 when they allow more than 10 points. Here we see a certain steering towards betting on PIT. It was also assumed that PIT has a good to above average defense that would stifle a Jaguars offense that scored 10 points in each of their last two games. Makes a compelling case when you consider how good PIT offense is and Antonio Brown was going to be back. If you followed this narrative, you would not be the only one. In fact, 71% of 2.37 million dollars were wagered on PIT! My clients were on Jacksonville and the over. 

Analytics led the way for the correct choice. The only true issue was trust. The true evaluation was how to gauge the PIT defense as it was a far below average group and to assess the Jacksonville offense as it was hidden for 2 straight games. The analytics showed that PIT was dead last in broken tackles allowed, ranked 30th in 2nd level yards, ranked 30th in allowing open field yards, they fell 18 spots in pass defense from week 9 when Shazier was injured, they were ranked dead last in red zone defense against the run, and they allowed over 29 points per game over their last four games to QBs such as Hundley, Flacco and Kizer. The writing was on the proverbial wall about this defense. Analytics showed the appropriate way to look at this game. The issue was trusting the information because the offense was so dreadful for Jacksonville the past couple of games.

Analytics is the clear advantage to getting the right understanding of the teams. It is imperative to know how to understand their meaning, use the information to get a clear picture assessing the teams, and most important, how to use the information correctly. Due to the excess of this data, it is also extremely valuable to use the correct data. For example, there is not much value to assess a TEs ability to impact a game if he is not a major part of the their game plan, that should be used for fantasy points. The analytics applies even more so to baseball. 

There are many new terms and statistics for analysis of MLB. Selecting the appropriate analytics is extremely valuable in this area. There are so many great statistics that can be used and I am sure there will be more to come. Some lead to understanding how a player gets better or worse but those aren't the ones that are predicting, guiding and correlating game outcomes. This where you must spend a large part of your time. Exit velocity does not tell you who to put a wager on! It might tell you who to include in your DFS lineup though. 

Either become a study of this information or hire someone who is astute in their ability to decipher and apply the information in ways that generate favorable wagering opportunities. It is a complex area but it is the future of sports. The ability to tie that information into sports gambling is not only here, but if you are not, you are behind. 

As always, good luck.  

The line moves and is HUGE news!

There is a common thought that Sports Books make a betting line to get equal wagering action on both the favorite and the underdog. In many cases, this is absolutely correct. However, there are several "spots" where the Books are not as concerned about their liabilities on one side of the game and have identified this spot where it wants to make money rather than split it. We can discover these spots and "follow the money", but more importantly, see what reaction the Book takes regarding their line move. We must understand that no matter how good of game breakdown analysts we are, we must also break down the line moves based on the money flow.

There are websites, tweets from sportsbook directors and postings of these readily available on a daily basis. It is important to find one and use it. Get used to the idea that not all games are intended to have equal action and sportsbooks DON'T lose money. Sure they may get beat a game or two, but over the daily slate of games, they will win or they wouldn't be in business. A good follow on Twitter is David Purdum. He analyses Vegas books daily and posts how much Vegas casinos win monthly. It is public record.

How do we identify these spots? An example looks like this. Alabama played Georgia for the NCAA Championship. The line opened -3 and quickly went to -4. Normal move based on money. However, money continued to come in on ALA at over 60% yet no move to -4.5. Why? It is because the books were satisfied with their liability and didn't mind the money to continue to come in on ALA. It really isn't that simple in this case due to teaser bets, future bets and parlay bets, but it is the gist. When the books don't respond to moving the liability they hold, they believe one side will prevail and they will make money as opposed to splitting the money. It also happens the opposite way. Let's say the money is rolling in on an underdog at +7. But the book doesn't reduce the line to +6.5. It means they like the money coming in on +7 and want more of it. Again, it is not quite this simple, but it is what to look for. The book wants to make money on some games and on others, they split their liability. 

As much time as we put into handicapping games, we must also get proficient at handicapping the line moves based on the flow of the money! When the book shows a bias toward a side of a game, it is the BEST choice to side with the book! Remember, they make money every week and every month.

Leading sports gamblers into false expectations needs to STOP now!

This Twitter sports gambling thing is amazing. There are guys with 50 unit plays, something called a Double MAX play, Play of the Year every week and much more non-sense. Sports gambling is as much of a daily grind as it is to try to play poker for a living. There is no such thing as a Double MAX play. There are hundreds of options on Twitter. The best Twitter provides is a connection to players and cappers. The worst Twitter provides are expectations of easy money that are so outrageous one wonders how anyone doesn't see through it.

It is simple. Only bet games where you believe there is a defined edge. The phrase "pros bet numbers and Joes bet teams" is pretty accurate. There is also the adage that "trends don't pay the rent" which is also accurate. The number of games to wager depends on how many edges you find. Pro sports bettors do not play every game, nor make many parlay wagers nor do they play all these crazy teaser options. You won't find them "buying the hook" or any of this other crap. I saw a service provide a "Play of the Year" and told their clients to buy the hook! Pro sports bettors find spots where they believe they have a positvie EV (expected value). They play every one of those no matter if it is 6 games on one day and only 1 game on another. Put your money in good. 

Once your money is in good, the expectation is to lose 40% of your wagers or 45% of them! Wow. The truth "is what it is". Sure there are runs of greatness and runs of horror, but long term daily wagering you will lose somewhere around 40% of your wagers and if that were to happen, you are an outperfomer! 60% wins or higher over a year with hundreds of wagers is excellent. So even with the best scenarios, this is what pros expect. Hence, they don't grade things in units! It is not a game to collect units then claim a unit is worth "x" dollars to show how much winning they do. Pros are looking at the dollars period. Most pros are using a flat betting aproach where there are two options. Option A is a standard wager of X dollars and Option B which is an enlarged wager but consistent to their bankroll. For example, a standard wager might be 2% of their bankroll and an enlarged wager might be 4% of their bankroll.

Here is a concept. If you put your money that you wager on sports in a savings account in a bank (you should put your money into a cd or something not a savings account), how much money would you gain by the end of a season? Let's try it with a season like football due to the large number of -110 wagers you would have. Just looked it up and you can get 1.35% at American Express Bank. Lets use $1000 as a bankroll. Football starts in September and ends in February so we will leave our money in the bank for 6 months. Month 1 (Sept) sees us earns 1.35% to gain $13.50, Month 2 (Oct) sees us earn 13.68$ so for the sake of space we will use 14$ per month gained, times the 6 months for a total of $84! Now can we make more than $84 dollars gambling on football? Lets use our 2% and 4% method and say we avg 3% of our bankroll on every wager (makes math easier). We will also say we make 8 wagers per week and win at 55% on -110 wageres. 8 x 4 weeks is 32 wagers per month of $30 each. We lose 45% so 14 wagers are lost at $33 for a total of $462. We win 55%  so 18 wagers are won at $30 for a total of $540. We won $540 and lost $462 for a net of $78 in a month. Now take that times the six months and we won $468 for the season! Much better than the $84 in the bank! ROI is much better. But look at that expectation! Only $468 for a season and we won 55% of our wagers. Keep in mind we now have $1468 so we virtully double our money. 

How do you make this work? It is all about the bankroll. Do NOT ever let others tell you anything different. You might win a little more or lose a little more, but it is investing in a long term outcome. You have to avoid those crazy Twitter guys with their guarantees and unrealistic expectations. Apply a strategy that works for you and your bankroll size. Ask yourself this. What if I had a $10,000 bankroll? Using the example above, you would roughly have won $4680 on the season. 

One other note I must throw in here. Pros have a higher bankroll than $10,000. They also have a higher risk tolerance for certain sports. So they might move their range on say Football to 3% and 7% whereas on Soccer they are 2% or 4%. It is all a balance of investing for the long term player. This is not intended for the guy that wants to win a single bet or bet the World Series every game. There are many reasons why gamblers make wagers. Everyday, grind it out players should be offended by much of what they see. The high risk, flash in the pan, get rich quick guys are the ones who bounce around looking for excitement. If they win great, if they lose on to the next one. Seen that on Twitter too. 

The point of all this is to make sure there is an understanding of expectaion that is accurate with sports gambling nuts and bolts. There are far too many loose get rich overnight visions that need to stop now. Whatever you win today can be given back tomorrow! Play accordingly and align your social behavior with the correct expectations.

Good Luck

Jay Bruce signs with the Mets

Today Jay Bruce signs a 3-year deal with the New York Mets. Jay had his best season in 2017. It was his best since 4 years ago in 2013 with the Reds. His WAR in 2017 was 2.7 but saw a significant increase in offensive WAR as he earned 12.1. Jay is certainly not a stellar defensive player but that is not what he was signed to do. He is here to hit!

The Mets had significant issues in their outfield 2017. Not one of their outfielders qualified as a hitter as they did not have enough at-bats. The issue was Cespedes being injured and played only 81 games. Conforto was having a breakout season and too was injured playing only 109 games. Granderson played in 111 games before moving on to LA Dodgers and Lagares and Nimmo rounded them out. A lineup with Conforto continuing to improve, Cespedes engaged and healthy, plus Bruce could go a long way. The Mets are not deep so this trio will need to play.

According to Steamer projections, this may not have been the best thing the Mets could have done. You see, Bruce was on a downswing in his career the past three seasons. Steamer suggests that 2017 was an outlier and he should revert back to the downswing seasons again. He earned 2.7 WAR in 2017. His projected Steamer WAR for 2018 is 1.0. A player with a 1 WAR is very similar to a replacement player. Brandon Nimmo earned a 1.1 WAR in 2017 for example. Conforto projects at 3.4 WAR and Cespedes at 3.0 WAR which are close to All-Star worthy. 4 WAR or above would qualify for that. Steamer is calling for 23 HRs and 71 RBIs with a K% of 22.4%. 2014, 2015 and 2016 saw a WAR below 1.0 for each of those seasons.

The bigger key for Mets improvement lies on Conforto and Cespedes carrying the load. Bruce is a worthy risk, but it appears there is a downside. Granderson earned 2.3WAR for the Mets in 2017! If Bruce is no better than 1.0 WAR, he will be a continuous letdown hitting in the middle of the lineup. Which Bruce will we see?