Boston Red Sox Preview 2019

AL East Team Previews

Boston Red Sox

       The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games amassing the best record in baseball. They dominated the Dodgers in the World Series going 4-1. They really beat up the poor in the AL East. They were 16-3 vs BAL and 15-4 vs TOR. The AL East is competitive with 2 teams with 100 or more wins and the Rays won 90.

       Last season there were 4 “Super Teams” heading into the season (BOS, NYY, HOU, LAD) and BOS lived up to their billing. They capitalized at home. They were 57-24 best in MLB. Their run differential at home was +146. BOS was the best against RHP. They were an astounding 87-38! HOU was 2^nd with 66-36.

       Mookie Betts won the AL MVP. He earned it. He had a 10.4 WAR, 185 wRC+, .438 OBP, 32HR, and he was 11.6

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def WAR. JD Martinez was late to sign in the offseason but was also in the MVP award conversation. He had a 5.9 WAR, 170 wRC+, .402 OBP, 43HR, 130 RBI with 111 Runs scored. Xander Bogaerts had a bounce-back season which turned out to be his best of his career. He had 4.9 WAR, 133 wRC+, with 103 RBI. They have 2 100+ RBI producers. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi earned 4.3 WAR, 122 wRC+, while scoring 103 runs. On many teams you will see one player that helps a team win, this team had 4 offensive stalwarts. 

       The 2019 team will get a long time Red Sox back in the lineup. Dustin Pedroia will again resume the 2^nd base position. Steve Pearce was resigned so BOS will get a full year from him. There are no other changes. So, the question is whether this team will be able to hold off the pennant chasers for another season.

       BOS scored more runs than any team in MLB last season with 876 which is 101 more runs than 2017. 2017 was the 1^st season without David Ortiz, so maybe they have their way to overcome his production loss. I am willing to believe their offense will resemble 2018 and not 2017 for this year. However, the projections show a drop-in productivity. This should be expected as their main guys all had career-best seasons last year. It is not easy to out produce your career-best season back to back. Youth is the key to that and they have youth.

       Here is a look into 2019.

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I will include 2018 totals for comparisons.

As you can see, there is a drop off at the top. Keep in mind that a 2.0 WAR is a solid everyday player and BOS will have 6! The projections also show an improved Rafael Devers. This offense will still be multifunctional and revolve around many run producing players which is what makes it unique. I expect the drop off not to affect the overall by very much.

       The starting pitching could not have gone better for BOS in 2018. I suppose one could argue injuries could have made for a better season, but production from the

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first 4 guys were very good. They had Porcello and Price make 30 starts. Porcello went 17-7 and Price 16-7. Sale and Rodriguez made 27 starts each with Sale 12-4 and Rodriguez 13-5. Those 4 starters were 58-23. Sale was the dominant one with a WAR of 6.5. Both Porcello and Price had 2.7 WAR.

       Sale had a FIP of 1.98 with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout percentage was 38.4%. His left on base percentage was 82.5%. He was truly an ACE. He did falter with a shoulder problem so he may not be the same this season. When returned from that injury, his fastball was several MPH lower.

       The 2019 outlook is very good. Sale is projected to be the best pitcher in MLB with 6.5 WAR! No ill effects from the shoulder anticipated. Price and Eovaldi are ranked in the top 30. They will have 3 fifths of the rotation as elite with the best in the league. Follow that with Porcello and Rodriguez and there is quality in these starters. Their depth is not nearly as quality though. The fill-ins will struggle to win when called on. 

        The bullpen is where there are significant issues going into 2019. They were ranked 9^th in WAR last season but have lost Joe Kelly who threw the most innings and has yet to replace or resign Craig Kimbrel. Between Kimbrel’s1.5 WAR and Kelly’s 0.7 WAR, the two account for roughly half accumulated WAR for their entire bullpen of 2018! Matt Barnes is the closer for now with Ryan Brasier as the setup guy. No one in this bullpen is slated for over 1.0 WAR, in fact, Barnes 0.8 is the largest projection. They

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will need the HOU approach where the bullpen throws the fewest inning in the league. That is not an easy ask in the AL East where there is offense.

       The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018. The adjusted standings say they should have won 104 games. Their run differential was +262 only HOU was better. The HOU team should have won 108 games so 104 games are a valid starting point for 2019. It is very difficult to comp career seasons from your best players so I will adjust a little lower going into 2019 for that but not a dramatic amount due to how BOS plays. I believe their starters are good and should reproduce their success from 2018. They will also have to take a hit for the bullpen weakness. This is not a strength and currently ranks 21^st coming into 2019. We are already have shown that 40% of the game relies upon this area. The projections call for 97 wins.

       I will agree with the projections here. I can see plus or minus a couple of games, but 97 wins is a very good estimate. I can also see where a free agent signing or a trade to bolster this bullpen would be a wise move and would help solidify this team at the top. 

MLB Run Differential Stories

A Key Stat to Follow Can be Run Differential

It is a simple and basic number. Run differential is the value of runs scored minus runs given up. It is a measure most often used to identify the strength of MLB teams. It can be applied to other sports like football and basketball, but for sure it is a useful measure in MLB. Teamrankings.com has a valuable way to see the data. I am posting their complete Run Differential list below.

Their list shows the total season, Last3 games played, Home games, Away games and what they in 2017. If you knew nothing about the MLB season, you could look at this reports and know who the haves and have-nots are quick. There are 2 teams over 200+ runs and 5 teams over 100+. There are also almost 2 teams -200 runs and there are 6 teams that are -100+! This chart can identify recently hot teams like LA Dodgers who have +20 runs in the last 3 games. It can show you some extreme variances like HOU. The Astros are +200 and +153 Away. It is astonishing to see that they are 76.5% more run differential away from home! Identifying these kinds of situations can lead to investing opportunities. HOU plays SEA today in Seattle. HOU has an extreme variance away and SEA is -33 at home which is 19th ranked in MLB. It shows just how far ahead of SEA that HOU really is. This creates an expected value positive. When investing, that is all we are trying to find. The more situations we have positive expected value, the more chances of winning our investments.

It is also cool to see how teams are doing one year to the next. A couple of examples are the SD Padres, WSH Nationals, and CIN Reds. Both CIN and SD are improved and WSH has become worse. Last season SD was the worst with -212 but now are only -120. That is nearly a 100 run improvement. CIN was -116 yet now they are only -62. Those are two more competitive with bright futures. WSH, on the other hand, is nearly 100 runs worse than last season. 

I would recommend spending some time analyzing run differential to see if you can find anything that is worthy of making investments.

Sports Gambling Series: A Gambler's Resposnibilites

No matter how you play, you have responsibilities!

A gambler, or more specifically a sports gambler, must realize that there are responsibilities that come with the opportunity to make wagers. Now that the laws have changed opening up wagering to the rest of the USA, there will be many new players. Yes, I am sure you have heard all those winners out there pounding their chest sounding as if everybody is killing it. Certainly, a thought might be "I can too". Please note that every month for the last 4+ years the Las Vegas sportsbooks have won against the "bettor"! It is actually 57 consecutive winning months now so please don't quit your day job. Though it is true there are few that can show a consistent profit, learn from what they know and how they wager. 

First of all and most important of all. Your bankroll should be protected as much as you are trying to grow it. It is the goal to grow but that growth is a timely matter. Slow steady growth with some spurts of exceptional "runs" will get you to your goal. You should only be wagering the number of discretionary funds you have available. Do NOT ever wager dollars that are intended for living expenses. This is a Cardinal Sin! If you are selecting a handicapper to assist you with your selections, remember this, you control your bets. If you don't like the play or the amount suggested to wager, change it or eliminate it. Handicappers are a dime a dozen these days. A guy goes on a run for a week then decides he has the answers and begins selling services. Don't be the guy paying for advice from that kind of service. There are very reputable handicappers out there. Every service does NOT fit under the same umbrella. Build a relationship like you would with a stockbroker. It is virtually the same thing. A broker suggests companies to invest in and a handicapper suggests teams. The largest difference is the time required to get your result. A stock may take 6 months to see returns whereas a sporting event takes several hours. It is your money and you should spend it the way you want to. 

Learn some valuable suggestions to get started. Here is one. There are dozens of opportunities to make wagers every day which means hundreds over the course of a month. There is no reason to play every single one! Learn to be very selective. Only make wagers where you see there is an edge to the line that is given out. This is a very key element to master from the beginning of your new journey. You are not betting teams as much as you are betting against lines! Professional bettors only make wagers they view as +EV. +EV is Positive Expected Value. If you can make a line and compare it to the betting line, you might see the value to one side or the other which generates Expected Value. This is an opportunity to wager. If you only bet on +EV situations, you will over time win money wagering on sports. In truth, you will overtime win on anything you are wagering on including poker. Successful gamblers are good at math. Knowing when you have value and how much value is important. Learn to master EV! A side effect of this will limit the number of appropriate wagers you make. There should be no limit to +EV wagers meaning that however many you find, wager them all.

A key component that is often overlooked is having fun. In general, this is why you are gambling. It is fun and might put some extra dollars in your pocket. Keep things small so the stress that can come from large wagers doesn't creep in on the ability to entertain yourself with these games. Never get so invested into one wager that you are an emotional wreck. This is easier said than done but realize as we have discussed, there are many opportunities. You will learn that sports gambling will uncover many aspects of games you didn't see prior to wagering on them. You might know what a passed ball is and that they are few in occurrence, but there are more than just a couple games decided by them over the course of a season and if you are on the wrong side of one of those, it can make you crazy! Or how about a dropped fly ball or an intentional safety? Those things happen and they do affect the outcome of a wager. My advice is simple. Once the game starts, you are only along for the ride. Enjoy the ride as much as you can knowing you might be riding against the team you are riding with today tomorrow. You can't change anything, but if it is bad enough, change the channel!

As you go down your journey, practice these simple yet effective tools to get you started!

Good Luck

Scott 

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

Gamblers ONLY win by making Positive Expected Value Wagers!

It has become very apparent that it is time to differentiate between all the frauds and "fly by night" so-called handicappers.  Gambling Twitter has hundreds of frauds, fakes, and phonies. Let's finally put to rest all these guys by asking smart questions. It is your money! Make sure you are investing it wisely. Isn't that the purpose, to grow your bankroll?

Ask your guy "Why are we putting my money on this game? What is the Positive Expected Value? If he does not reply with some sort of percentage advantage, he is lost and making stuff up! Understanding Positive Expected Value is straightforward for Casino gambling, but a little more problematic for sports wagering. In a casino, the odds of an outcome are always known. The payout is always known, so you can easily determine if your wagering with the best of the odds. I am providing an article written by a bookmaker so the examples he uses are best to follow. When it comes to sports wagering, the outcomes are not known, so there is more room for error and interpretation. I liken it to poker odds. For example, you know what is in your hand, you know what the drawing odds are, and you know the what cards are on the table. You don't know what the other guy has, so you are only assuming his hand strength based on his actions up to this point. Knowing what you can beat will help you wager correctly in this circumstance. Sports gambling applies in a similar way. You know the bookmaker odds, you know what teams are playing, and you know the players that will impact the outcome. However, you do not know the outcome. You must find the implied probability of the outcome then compare it to the bookmakers odds. If you have Positive Expected Value, then you are putting your money in good and over time will be profitable.

Let's make a deal! From now on, you will no longer cry about being taken advantage of by these trashy fraudulent marketers. You will educate yourself. You will only utilize the true handicappers out there. You will become a better gambler!

Here is the article. 

How to Calculate And Use Expected Value

If I asked you to explain expected value and how it relates to sports betting, how much could you tell me?  My guess is, not a whole lot. Don't be concerned. You are not alone. Most people reading this article will be the same. Similar to calculating a bookmakers margins, being able to calculate expected value is something you must know how to do.

What Is Expected Value

The easiest way to understand expected value (EV) is to break it down to its simplest form. EV is a calculation used to determine whether a bet has a positive or negative profit expectation. For example, If you are playing roulette and put a $1 chip on all 36 numbers and another on zero, you will have risked a total of $37. After the spin, 36 of your bets will lose, and one bet will win. You will earn $35 of profit and get your chip back for a total of $36. A net loss of $1. If you divide your net loss of -1$ by your risk of $37, you get -1.027. The -0.027 represents a loss in cents per dollar risked. You will lose 2.7 cents per dollar bet on roulette.

Applying Expected Value to Sports Betting

For casino games where probability outcomes are known, calculating expected value is straightforward. Calculating EV in sports betting, however, can be tricky. Unlike games of chance, calculating expected value for a specific sports bet before the game starts is not possible. This is a very important point and one bettors often confuse. Because the true probabilities of outcomes are not known until the game is complete, any attempt to speculate on the EV of a sports wager would be an estimate at best. An easier way of thinking about the true application of expected value in sports betting would be to refer to it as Profit Expectation instead. Profit expectation can be used to determine the skill of a bettor using his results over an extended period of time. For example, You make 100 wagers at even money for $1 each. You end up winning 55 and losing 45 for a profit of $10. If you divide $10 by 100, you determine that you have a profit expectation of 0.1 or 10%. By comparing the probability of the outcome with the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you can determine if you have a positive profit expectation. Not all bettors with positive profit history are skilled bettors. Luck plays a large role in the success of gambling. Calculating profit expectation will tell you how much luck is influencing the true result. Knowing that you have a positive expectancy is a way to validate your methods. This is the principal of value betting at its finest. Knowing that you have a negative expectancy allows you to save yourself from continuing to chase bad wagers and promote making a change. 

Don't Be Biased When Calculating

I encourage you to go back through your wager history and gather enough data so you can determine your profit expectancy. Looking at these figures without bias can be difficult. It takes a lot to accept that luck plays a part in your results and your wins and losses are not dictated solely by your predictive ability and decisions you make. If you approach your history without bias, you will be able to identify if your betting methods will provide you long-term success, or not. Don't worry if the results are not what you want to see. Accept them for what they are and build on them. Self-awareness is important. You are the only person holding you back from changing a negative profit expectaion into a positive one.

Why we stand apart & our promise to you. #Settingthestandard #WebbieWins

Why we stand apart and our promise to you.

Odds makers are not Idiots!

Odds Makers are Not Idiots!

Major League Baseball has a unique "game" within the game aspect. A pitcher has gone thru his pregame study of the hitters he will be facing. He has charted the pitches from the prior game to get a feel for developing a strategy to get the hitters to make outs. He goes thru a pregame meeting with the catcher so they are in sync with the game plan. The hitters watch tape of their swings to make minor adjustments to improve their execution of it, then they study the pitcher on tape. They see where the release point is, they analyze his strong pitches and weak ones. They make a game plan on how to attack the pitcher. All this leads to game action, where the batter steps into the box and the pitcher receive the sign from the catcher. Then it is a matter of who executes best! 

I tell that story to tell this one. Odds Makers are extremely proficient at what they do. Their job is to be nice and friendly with the gambler but to make their casino money. That is an exceptionally fine line to walk. They have to write lines that draw action yet put themselves in profitable situations. They have to analyze numbers, data, but most important predict the future action on the games. They make adjustments to get wagers on both sides of the games but also to give them a favorable edge over the general public. Make no mistake. The sportsbook is a FOR PROFIT organization. We gamblers and handicappers have to wager the lines set by the Odds Makers. We come up with all kinds of ways to beat them. I have seen trends, systems, guessing, data analysis, computer algorithms and much more. This is the "game" within the game aspect of sports wagering.

Do not disrespect the line that is made! It has a definite purpose. Have you ever wondered why a line that was released was not a point or half a point different? There is a reason for the value it shows. The best way to beat the Odds Maker is to beat his line with yours. Your line MUST be true odds. His line is slanted to drive profit in his sportsbook. This where EV (Expected Value) can be measured. Once you learn how to make your own lines, you will be able to see through some of the smokescreens the Odds Makers put out there. Just a side note, if you are having someone else handicap games for you and make suggestions for which to wager on, they better be able to give the EV for that wager! BIG red flags should go up if they can't!

You MUST be great at team analysis and cutting-edge data analysis. Odds Makers have their "power ratings" that they base the lines on. We can find superior data and superior team analysis as edges over the Odds Makers. An edge is defined as anything that creates EV over the betting line. Once we have established those edges, we now have to get into the batter's box and take a swing at the Odds Makers' pitch. This requires us to analyze the line. What is the purpose of it? Has it moved in any direction and if so, why? Do we have any data on how much dollar volume has been wagered? This is the part where you can be the best analyst in the world and still be a losing gambler! You MUST get very proficient at reading the lines or in other terms, seeing the pitches. Ever see a batter look like a fool because of a swing and miss or get "jelly legs" due to a curveball? This is exactly what we look like when we miss our wagers! Be a tough out and know what you are doing every step of the way! Prepare better, analyze better, read the line better, and above all respect your opponent!

    

Bankroll Management

Bankroll Management

There are many aspects to gambling on sports. There are different types of sports, many types of wagers and one should be good at team analysis. There is also the number you have to beat. Remember this, novice gamblers bet teams, pro gamblers bet the best number as it provides the pro with a positive expected value (EV). The real issue becoming successful is that you can do all this right and still be a loser. One might wonder, "how is that statement true?" The answer is bankroll management. It is a Wednesday night and you have selected a "lock" can't miss game based on all the proper analysis from above. You have a great line and positive EV. However, the game is in the 3rd inning with your team ahead by 2 runs. All of the sudden the rains come pouring down producing a 2.5-hour rain delay. When the teams come back out, they both have new pitchers. Your team doesn't respond well and they end up losing the game by 1 run! There are no guarantees in sports betting. You can do everything right and still have something happen. If you properly wagered on the game, you will not take a big hit to your bankroll, but if you are like the masses,  you probably stepped way out and wagered an amount over your bankroll means and now are trying to figure out how you are going get out of this hole you find yourself in. If you want to become a successful investor in sports games, you must determine the proper strategy for managing your bankroll. This is a separate skill set that is required and one we will further discuss.

Your bankroll is defined as monies dedicated to placing your wagers on the games. It is not your rent money, not your electric bill money, nor is it you car payment money. The sole purpose of this money is to wager on games. You must first decide how much money you have for a bankroll. This should be a relatively easy task. You know how much "extra" money you have, use it to fund your bankroll. 

Now we have an established bankroll to use. We must determine the appropriate way to manage this fund. It starts by determining what kind of risk taker you are. Determining that is easier than you think. If you were to deplete your bankroll, would you be able to make a new one or would you be done gambling for awhile until you could get back in the game? Simple question, yet the answer is important. If re-establishing your account is no problem, then your first risk taker profile is high because you can always re-up at any time. If you cannot re-establish your account, then you have a low risk taker profile. Since you must play to stay in the game, you will be somewhat working backward. All of your wagers must consider your total in the account before you make them hence working backward. A couple of simple examples. Player A can re-up his bankroll and he starts with $500. He can wager 5 games at $100 each anytime he likes. Player B cannot re-up his bankroll for 5 months. He is in a position where he needs to determine what percentage of his bankroll he can afford to risk for the day so he is not in jeopardy of being out of the game. Let's say he wants to bet the same games as Player A and has the same amount of his bankroll. He may decide that 20% of his bankroll being exposed at any given time is his threshold so he can only wager $125 for the day which also means he can only put in play $25 per game. Huge difference right?

Now we have established the main risk profile of the player, we must determine the purpose of wagering in the first place. We must do this so we can then set some parameters and realistic goals. There are many reasons why we gamble on the games. Some have expendable income and want to make quick money fast, others want to establish a routine and grow their bankroll like a savings account would grow incrementally. If you are not worried about losing then wagering larger and wagering on many opportunities could be a perfect style for you. Your returns on wins will be higher but your wins will be fewer, so the idea is to win the larger bet games and the highest odds games to maximize those wins. If you are growing or grinding your account with disciplined wagers, you will have more wins but not get rich quick. Your bankroll will grow incrementally but at a higher percentage rate than in a savings account. This style will also allow you to accept any losing streaks that happen to everyone. Your results should be judged over months, not days or weeks. Just like the stock market or any other investment options, sports wagering is volatile and will have many ups and downs. Most novice wagerers find this frustrating and it generally leads to their demise.

We now have determined your bankroll and your style, so how do we establish parameters and realistic goals? Parameters are your guard rails. We utilize a strategy to best position ourselves for the least amount of loss and the most amount of profit. For the loose players with no intention of grinding out wagers, your parameters should start with maximizing results as long as you have the ability to re-up your bankroll or are a short-term player looking to score. I highly recommend looking backward from a standpoint of return. Say you have $500 in your bankroll. You may not have a specific dollar growth expectancy but you should be trying to max out your wagers. You should not be deciding which one game to make a double or nothing wager, but that is sort of what I am talking about. You should be thinking about how much money you are going make not how much money to hold back to use tomorrow, you need a guardrail around the quality of games you are wagering. Every day offers a menu of games to wager on. Remember that tomorrow offers opportunities if there is not the "step out" wager game today. For tonight's menu, maybe play smaller strung together wagers where your risk is small yet return is high. As an example, tonight play a 3 team parlay and a 2 team parlay hoping to hit both but if you win one, they will more than cover each other generating a small profit. You are strategically maximizing lesser quality to get the highest return. Keep in mind, you are not holding back and not worried about losing your bankroll. Then tomorrow, play a strategically large wager on the best game on the board to maximize that opportunity. 

It is a much more disciplined approach for the grinder type wagerer. Your wagers are always made with the intention to grow your bankroll incrementally and to minimize loss. In this scenario, we are not trying to maximize wins but to minimize loss and risk of bankroll depletion. We do this by setting limits on how much we can lose in a day and by being very selective in the wagers we make. This style will allow us to establish realistic goals which will create our guard rails. We need to understand what are realistic goals? As shown above, you can risk any amount at any time, and in the short-term outlook and make some money or often times, lose all of your money. However, if you are trying to make this a steady part-time income or full-time career, you'll need to know what that looks like. This style requires a large bankroll. We are investing a part of our bankroll each day. We find the best positive EV opportunities then make consistent "unit" wagers based on strength of value. We are making only wagers that are EV positive.We will also expect to win these wagers at a 55% rate or higher. The win rate required is 52.38%. It's the break-even rate due to 10% vigorish at the bookmaker. Maintaining this bankroll requires having 6% or less of your bankroll on wagers in action pending results at any given time. This parameter allows for losses and losing streaks without compromising the 1 unit or 2 unit scale or depletion of the bankroll. It is important to maintain the scale to overcome bad days without changing your unit sizes. The 2 unit is the max bet. It can slightly vary in value because 6% is the max as it would be most allowable in play amount, however, you may have another wager to make at the same time. In that case, you might make the 2 unit wager 4% and the 1 unit wager 2% of the bankroll thus keeping the 6% in play the guardrail. We are not risking large portions of bankroll so we won't win large portions of money. This method requires the ability to beat the number more than the breakeven rate AND the discipline to limit the number of wagers resulting in exposing our bankroll to more than 6% in action opportunities. We need only to wager on the most premium of spots in this style. This is investment style wagering where we make money over time and get a solid return on our investment.

Here are some pitfalls to avoid.

Do not make a larger percentage wager than you should. Stay disciplined to your path and style.

Do not increase unit scales or sizes until your bankroll grows proportionately.

Chasing your losses is bad behavior and a sure means to bankroll mismanagement.