3 True Outcomes

Regression measured thru Game Score

San Diego Padre 2019 update

San Diego Padres Update

Now that the Padres have won the Manny Machado sweepstakes, we need to update their outlook for 2019. First off, it is good for MLB that a small market team was able to compete and win a free agent of this magnitude. Manny Machado projects with 5.4 WAR which is 8^th best. He is projected to hit 33 HR, have 94 RBI and score 88 runs. He is in the elite class of players.

The Padres are ranked #1 in their farm system. The top 100 prospects are ranked every season. They are a team that is on the rise soon, and now with Manny, their immediate future is also better. He will likely play SS to start the season. Their infield will be formidable. Eric Hosmer at 1B, Luis Urias 2B (1 of those top 100 prospects), and Ian Kinsler to play 3B. They will be calling up Fernando Tatis Jr this season. He will either play SS moving Manny to 3B or he will take over 3B. He is the future of this team. Their infield of Urias, Machado, and Tatis Jr is very good for many seasons to come. SD also has 7 pitchers in top 100 list! This organization is stacked with talent.

Not getting ahead of ourselves here though, Machado projection of 5.4 WAR is their only above 2.0 WAR guy this season. The issue is youthfulness and time in the big leagues. These young guys will be getting their chance this season but Tatis Jr will start in AAA. SD will need these hitters to develop into above 2.0 WAR players (they all show signs that will not be a problem). We will see C Francisco Mejia this season too.

They now have 5 guys with 20+ HR projections for 2019. They will need their young outfielders to progress this season. Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe all need to make steps forward. The offense looks to be much better than the 28^th rank of 2018. The pitching is still at least one year away. It seems like their window for division competitiveness starts in 2020. They made great strides with this move. There is nothing to say they won’t do another move next season when there are many good starting pitcher free agents on the market.

Their projected wins were 75 prior to Machado and now are 80 (only 2 games under .500). I still think that is a forward or aggressive outlook. I think they will be shy of those projections. 

2019 MLB Preview and Betting Guide

The preview and betting guide is now available. It is FREE on my Telegram page. Use this link to get there once you have downloaded Telegram. : 

https://t.me/joinchat/GRon-RYpyXWpD7u06lupgA

There are 170 pages of Baseball! Team previews, recaps, and forecasts for every team. There are articles about run differential, Offensive difficulty, Game Score, Relief pitching, and many more subjects.

2019 Houston Astros Preview

Houston Astros

       HOU was the defending World Champs. They ran into injury trouble and slow start, but they still won 103 games. I contend that HOU was the best team in MLB last season. Their adjusted win standings show a .667 win percentage which is 108 wins (BOS should have won less at 104). Anyway, the games are real and not played in data alternative environment. This team was pushed down the stretch. OAK would not go away and finished with 97 wins. SEA drove the 1^st half of the season to make HOU work, so they had no joy ride to win the division.

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       Surprisingly, HOU was not that impressive at home. They won 46 games which ranks 12^th. Their home game run differential was +81 or 5^th. They had the best pitching in MLB last season which helped the run differential. What was impressive was their road dominance. HOU won 57 away games going 57-24 for the best in MLB. Their away run differential was +189! They were far and away the most dominant road team. HOU had the best run differential in MLB with +270. This easily validates the adjusted standings.

          The difference between HOU, BOS and NYY is the offense. HOU ranks 5^th in OFF (behind BOS and NYY). HOU scored 797 runs whereas BOS had 876 and NYY had 851. They put the ball in play, don’t strike out but have slightly less power, ranking 10^th in ISO. HOU pitchers made them so good last season. The 2017 team was awesome hitting as well as pitching. I have included 2017 hitters and 2018.

Notice the decline in Altuve, Correa, Springer, Gonzalez etc. Only Bregman was better last season. This is good news for their 2019 outlook. A common theme has been difficulty comping your best seasons, and this again rang true for HOU. However, a resurgence can be expected as well.

       HOU was #1 in pitching last season (starters #2, relievers #3). HOU starters threw the 2^nd most innings in MLB and were the only group to have 10+ K/9 (10.37). They had the lowest FIP with 3.28. They had 4 guys with 30+ starts. Justin Verlander led with 34. He also had a 6.8 WAR with 2.78 FIP! Gerrit Cole made 32 starts producing 6.3 WAR with a 2.70 FIP. These two were as dominant as any pair in MLB. Dallas Keuchel made 34 starts with 3.6 WAR and Charlie Morton 30 starts with a 3.1 WAR. Lance McCullers went down and had Tommy John surgery although he did make 22 starts. HOU bullpen is very good. They had 4 guys earn over 1.0 WAR. McHugh 1.4, Rondon 1.3, Harris 1.2 and Pressly 1.0. Osuna became their closer late last season. He had 1.99 ERA and 12 Saves in 23 games.

          HOU made some changes for the 2019 season. Michael Brantley comes in to play OF and Robinson Chirinos will catch. The best news is the hitting projections. Bregman leads with 5.5 WAR so he should be a perennial All-Star with some MVP discussion. Altuve is back up to 4.6 WAR. Springer at 4.0 WAR and Correa 4.5 WAR. These are the 4 guys that stir this mix and they all should be at peak performance. Brantley projects with 2.0 WAR being a solid starter.

The starters suffer a bit this season. Verlander and Cole are back and will still be very good. They lose Morton, Keuchel and McCullers will not be on the roster this season. They are planning on Joshua James who filled in for McCullers last season to continue to develop. They just signed Wade Miley as an insurance policy, but he pitched well last season (3.59 FIP). McHugh may move into a starting role. All of this is just waiting on their real answer, Forrest Whitley. He is due on the scene this season. A comparison would be Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. He is very talented and will make an impact once he gets his feet wet in the big leagues. The bullpen will benefit from Osuna and Pressly for the entire season making it deeper and more talented.

       I am high on HOU. I am using 108 as a starting point from 2018. However, this is tricky. I foresee them better on offense, but worse and less deep on the mound. Pitching matters and was the reason this team was so run differential strong in 2018. I don’t see that as the case this year. Winning 100 games is tough, but their division is not as strong this year. SEA went into sell-off and OAK has no pitchers. I think they could win near 100 games despite losing their pitchers. Their projection is only 95. I think that is a very large drop, but I will shade towards a lower end number of wins. I think 98 wins seems reasonable assumption for HOU.

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Boston Red Sox Preview 2019

AL East Team Previews

Boston Red Sox

       The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games amassing the best record in baseball. They dominated the Dodgers in the World Series going 4-1. They really beat up the poor in the AL East. They were 16-3 vs BAL and 15-4 vs TOR. The AL East is competitive with 2 teams with 100 or more wins and the Rays won 90.

       Last season there were 4 “Super Teams” heading into the season (BOS, NYY, HOU, LAD) and BOS lived up to their billing. They capitalized at home. They were 57-24 best in MLB. Their run differential at home was +146. BOS was the best against RHP. They were an astounding 87-38! HOU was 2^nd with 66-36.

       Mookie Betts won the AL MVP. He earned it. He had a 10.4 WAR, 185 wRC+, .438 OBP, 32HR, and he was 11.6

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def WAR. JD Martinez was late to sign in the offseason but was also in the MVP award conversation. He had a 5.9 WAR, 170 wRC+, .402 OBP, 43HR, 130 RBI with 111 Runs scored. Xander Bogaerts had a bounce-back season which turned out to be his best of his career. He had 4.9 WAR, 133 wRC+, with 103 RBI. They have 2 100+ RBI producers. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi earned 4.3 WAR, 122 wRC+, while scoring 103 runs. On many teams you will see one player that helps a team win, this team had 4 offensive stalwarts. 

       The 2019 team will get a long time Red Sox back in the lineup. Dustin Pedroia will again resume the 2^nd base position. Steve Pearce was resigned so BOS will get a full year from him. There are no other changes. So, the question is whether this team will be able to hold off the pennant chasers for another season.

       BOS scored more runs than any team in MLB last season with 876 which is 101 more runs than 2017. 2017 was the 1^st season without David Ortiz, so maybe they have their way to overcome his production loss. I am willing to believe their offense will resemble 2018 and not 2017 for this year. However, the projections show a drop-in productivity. This should be expected as their main guys all had career-best seasons last year. It is not easy to out produce your career-best season back to back. Youth is the key to that and they have youth.

       Here is a look into 2019.

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I will include 2018 totals for comparisons.

As you can see, there is a drop off at the top. Keep in mind that a 2.0 WAR is a solid everyday player and BOS will have 6! The projections also show an improved Rafael Devers. This offense will still be multifunctional and revolve around many run producing players which is what makes it unique. I expect the drop off not to affect the overall by very much.

       The starting pitching could not have gone better for BOS in 2018. I suppose one could argue injuries could have made for a better season, but production from the

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first 4 guys were very good. They had Porcello and Price make 30 starts. Porcello went 17-7 and Price 16-7. Sale and Rodriguez made 27 starts each with Sale 12-4 and Rodriguez 13-5. Those 4 starters were 58-23. Sale was the dominant one with a WAR of 6.5. Both Porcello and Price had 2.7 WAR.

       Sale had a FIP of 1.98 with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout percentage was 38.4%. His left on base percentage was 82.5%. He was truly an ACE. He did falter with a shoulder problem so he may not be the same this season. When returned from that injury, his fastball was several MPH lower.

       The 2019 outlook is very good. Sale is projected to be the best pitcher in MLB with 6.5 WAR! No ill effects from the shoulder anticipated. Price and Eovaldi are ranked in the top 30. They will have 3 fifths of the rotation as elite with the best in the league. Follow that with Porcello and Rodriguez and there is quality in these starters. Their depth is not nearly as quality though. The fill-ins will struggle to win when called on. 

        The bullpen is where there are significant issues going into 2019. They were ranked 9^th in WAR last season but have lost Joe Kelly who threw the most innings and has yet to replace or resign Craig Kimbrel. Between Kimbrel’s1.5 WAR and Kelly’s 0.7 WAR, the two account for roughly half accumulated WAR for their entire bullpen of 2018! Matt Barnes is the closer for now with Ryan Brasier as the setup guy. No one in this bullpen is slated for over 1.0 WAR, in fact, Barnes 0.8 is the largest projection. They

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will need the HOU approach where the bullpen throws the fewest inning in the league. That is not an easy ask in the AL East where there is offense.

       The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018. The adjusted standings say they should have won 104 games. Their run differential was +262 only HOU was better. The HOU team should have won 108 games so 104 games are a valid starting point for 2019. It is very difficult to comp career seasons from your best players so I will adjust a little lower going into 2019 for that but not a dramatic amount due to how BOS plays. I believe their starters are good and should reproduce their success from 2018. They will also have to take a hit for the bullpen weakness. This is not a strength and currently ranks 21^st coming into 2019. We are already have shown that 40% of the game relies upon this area. The projections call for 97 wins.

       I will agree with the projections here. I can see plus or minus a couple of games, but 97 wins is a very good estimate. I can also see where a free agent signing or a trade to bolster this bullpen would be a wise move and would help solidify this team at the top.