NFL example of +EV situation using Win Percentage

 

Using win percentage to find +EV situations in the NFL

Let’s use today’s game with Carolina traveling to Green Bay to illustrate how to find expected value positive situations.

This game is GB -8 at most places and opened -9.5. There are reasons that people are betting the Panthers, but we are looking at a simplified process to gauge the strength of the line. First, we need to get a Win Percentage in this game. How many times out of a 100 will GB beat CAR? There are many ways to calculate this depending on your models, algorithms, or handicapping; but I use Team Ranking’s model as everyone has access and it is rather good. I am using the Similar Games Analysis section so we can get historical input that resembles this matchup.

The picture will show a Green Bay win percentage of 91.1%! The result surprised me. It is very high!

This result indicates that CAR has little chance of winning the game. However, getting 8 points are good right? We need to convert the winning percentage into a money line, then convert that into a spread to find out. Let’s start with the money line conversion.

You will need a Spread Converter for this. I use this one from Sportsbookreview.com. The graphic shows 90% (89.97%) win percentage on the money line is -1641.9 and that converts to -13.5 -110 on a spread line.

The math shows that GB in this spot should be -13.5-point favorite against CAR today! This creates an expected value positive situation of 5.5 points to the line. The variance is a HUGE edge to GB side. If you make +EV bets, you should expect to WIN many of them. The real question is how do you know if you are making one? When risking your money, make smart choices! Using a methodology like this or at least one similar, you can calculate your edge and define it. There are very few handicappers that can define their edge and prove the +EV situation exists. Now you can too!

 

 

 

 

Houston Astros Sign Stealing in a view of wins

HOU sign stealing and the possible ramifications

We can’t really get into the 2020 season without talking about the sign-stealing scandal. HOU had their GM and their field manager suspended for 1 year by MLB, then they were fired by the team’s owner. BOS lost its field manager as a carryover effect. Their manager was previously HOU bench coach and the main instigator. Also caught up in this, was the new NYM manager as he was a prior player for HOU. This is the story of the 2017 HOU Astros, 2018 BOS Red Sox. MLB investigated and found that HOU was cheating by using technology to steal signs. Ultimately, we do not know the depth of this as MLB has decided to keep the investigation details closed. MLB did find HOU guilty and seemingly BOS as well. This article is not about that story. We all know it already. This is about the effect that knowing when a slider is coming what advantage does the hitter have.

Some context here is necessary for understanding. The first part is to understand the pitch value. It measures the runs above or below average by the type of pitch thrown. I have looked at this data for years. Here is some context around what is the best run-saving pitch in baseball. It is the slider. It has become the most runs saved above average pitch making it the number one out pitch in baseball. Below are the last three years of data of fastballs and sliders thrown by pitchers. I used the last three years due to 2017 being the start date (HOU World Series) of when the cheating began. I used the fastball as a reference due to it being the most thrown pitch in MLB.

                2017 Fastball 4 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 18 teams

                2018 Fastball 9 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 24 teams

                2019 Fastball 7 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 16 teams

As you can see above, the slider is the most used out pitch in MLB. This would also indicate that it is the toughest pitch in MLB. The reasoning is that each of the last 3 seasons, double-digit teams saved more runs to average than any other pitch is thrown.

Looking at the offensive side, there are some amazing results. HOU won in 2017, BOS won in 2018, and HOU was found to have cheated in 2019. They didn’t win it all, but they were in the game. I find that may not have been all skillful. The cheating was specific to the slider or curveball. Any pitch that breaks. The noises heard from the dugout where the signal to be ready for a slower, moving, or curving pitch.

    2017 HOU was #1 offense vs the slider (only 3 teams were double-digit runs gained and          only 4 teams were positive runs in total) and #1 vs the curveball.

                2018 BOS was #1 offense (only 2 teams were positive runs gained) vs the slider

                2019 HOU was #1 offense and BOS#2 vs the slider (see the chart below as it is very                            telling)

               

It is almost embarrassing to see the disparity between the HOU and BOS offense. They not only are the only teams in double-digit runs gained above average, but they are also at minimum 6 times better than the 3^rd place team! To have an edge this large, it becomes less of a competition and more of an exhibition. This kind of an edge allows these teams to view the games like batting practice or to some degree like a home run derby.

It will be very difficult to understand the betting ramifications of this until a couple of months into the season. I believe both teams have quality talent but they obviously took advantage of knowing the pitches. Undoubtedly, both of these teams will have reduced performance. However, if they knew spinning balls were coming, they also know when a fastball was coming too. Now, they will no longer know either. Both teams will suffer offensively from this. The biggest question is how much?

The slider will become a tough pitch again for these 2 teams. If we assume they will become better than average but not the best in baseball, we can assume HOU will lose 57.8 runs and BOS 44.6 runs just on one pitch. Those calculations are based on the 15^th ranked team (ATL -19.8 runs) as an average. HOU was #2 against the fastball. Doing the same exercise, it is possible they could lose another 73 runs! In total, they could lose nearly 130 runs! Their run differential would drop to +150 or so. The Washington Nationals had +149 (won 93 games). HOU also loses G.Cole and becomes less stellar on the mound. This too reduces the run differential. It is very possible that HOU will win less than 90 games!

Sign stealing has a quantitative effect. It is very possible HOU does not win the AL West (OAK can pass them by). They will have to fight to make it out of the Wild Card round. I think they catch a break if BOS trades Betts, as BOS would become a team less likely to compete with them for those spots. This will be a very tough season on them. There seems to be bad blood amongst the other teams and players. HOU will endure a tough season having to battle those heated feelings towards them from the players and fans. The ramifications of their actions could make for a lost season. We will see.

3 True Outcomes

Regression measured thru Game Score

San Diego Padre 2019 update

San Diego Padres Update

Now that the Padres have won the Manny Machado sweepstakes, we need to update their outlook for 2019. First off, it is good for MLB that a small market team was able to compete and win a free agent of this magnitude. Manny Machado projects with 5.4 WAR which is 8^th best. He is projected to hit 33 HR, have 94 RBI and score 88 runs. He is in the elite class of players.

The Padres are ranked #1 in their farm system. The top 100 prospects are ranked every season. They are a team that is on the rise soon, and now with Manny, their immediate future is also better. He will likely play SS to start the season. Their infield will be formidable. Eric Hosmer at 1B, Luis Urias 2B (1 of those top 100 prospects), and Ian Kinsler to play 3B. They will be calling up Fernando Tatis Jr this season. He will either play SS moving Manny to 3B or he will take over 3B. He is the future of this team. Their infield of Urias, Machado, and Tatis Jr is very good for many seasons to come. SD also has 7 pitchers in top 100 list! This organization is stacked with talent.

Not getting ahead of ourselves here though, Machado projection of 5.4 WAR is their only above 2.0 WAR guy this season. The issue is youthfulness and time in the big leagues. These young guys will be getting their chance this season but Tatis Jr will start in AAA. SD will need these hitters to develop into above 2.0 WAR players (they all show signs that will not be a problem). We will see C Francisco Mejia this season too.

They now have 5 guys with 20+ HR projections for 2019. They will need their young outfielders to progress this season. Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe all need to make steps forward. The offense looks to be much better than the 28^th rank of 2018. The pitching is still at least one year away. It seems like their window for division competitiveness starts in 2020. They made great strides with this move. There is nothing to say they won’t do another move next season when there are many good starting pitcher free agents on the market.

Their projected wins were 75 prior to Machado and now are 80 (only 2 games under .500). I still think that is a forward or aggressive outlook. I think they will be shy of those projections. 

2019 MLB Preview and Betting Guide

The preview and betting guide is now available. It is FREE on my Telegram page. Use this link to get there once you have downloaded Telegram. : 

https://t.me/joinchat/GRon-RYpyXWpD7u06lupgA

There are 170 pages of Baseball! Team previews, recaps, and forecasts for every team. There are articles about run differential, Offensive difficulty, Game Score, Relief pitching, and many more subjects.

2019 Houston Astros Preview

Houston Astros

       HOU was the defending World Champs. They ran into injury trouble and slow start, but they still won 103 games. I contend that HOU was the best team in MLB last season. Their adjusted win standings show a .667 win percentage which is 108 wins (BOS should have won less at 104). Anyway, the games are real and not played in data alternative environment. This team was pushed down the stretch. OAK would not go away and finished with 97 wins. SEA drove the 1^st half of the season to make HOU work, so they had no joy ride to win the division.

Page 83

       Surprisingly, HOU was not that impressive at home. They won 46 games which ranks 12^th. Their home game run differential was +81 or 5^th. They had the best pitching in MLB last season which helped the run differential. What was impressive was their road dominance. HOU won 57 away games going 57-24 for the best in MLB. Their away run differential was +189! They were far and away the most dominant road team. HOU had the best run differential in MLB with +270. This easily validates the adjusted standings.

          The difference between HOU, BOS and NYY is the offense. HOU ranks 5^th in OFF (behind BOS and NYY). HOU scored 797 runs whereas BOS had 876 and NYY had 851. They put the ball in play, don’t strike out but have slightly less power, ranking 10^th in ISO. HOU pitchers made them so good last season. The 2017 team was awesome hitting as well as pitching. I have included 2017 hitters and 2018.

Notice the decline in Altuve, Correa, Springer, Gonzalez etc. Only Bregman was better last season. This is good news for their 2019 outlook. A common theme has been difficulty comping your best seasons, and this again rang true for HOU. However, a resurgence can be expected as well.

       HOU was #1 in pitching last season (starters #2, relievers #3). HOU starters threw the 2^nd most innings in MLB and were the only group to have 10+ K/9 (10.37). They had the lowest FIP with 3.28. They had 4 guys with 30+ starts. Justin Verlander led with 34. He also had a 6.8 WAR with 2.78 FIP! Gerrit Cole made 32 starts producing 6.3 WAR with a 2.70 FIP. These two were as dominant as any pair in MLB. Dallas Keuchel made 34 starts with 3.6 WAR and Charlie Morton 30 starts with a 3.1 WAR. Lance McCullers went down and had Tommy John surgery although he did make 22 starts. HOU bullpen is very good. They had 4 guys earn over 1.0 WAR. McHugh 1.4, Rondon 1.3, Harris 1.2 and Pressly 1.0. Osuna became their closer late last season. He had 1.99 ERA and 12 Saves in 23 games.

          HOU made some changes for the 2019 season. Michael Brantley comes in to play OF and Robinson Chirinos will catch. The best news is the hitting projections. Bregman leads with 5.5 WAR so he should be a perennial All-Star with some MVP discussion. Altuve is back up to 4.6 WAR. Springer at 4.0 WAR and Correa 4.5 WAR. These are the 4 guys that stir this mix and they all should be at peak performance. Brantley projects with 2.0 WAR being a solid starter.

The starters suffer a bit this season. Verlander and Cole are back and will still be very good. They lose Morton, Keuchel and McCullers will not be on the roster this season. They are planning on Joshua James who filled in for McCullers last season to continue to develop. They just signed Wade Miley as an insurance policy, but he pitched well last season (3.59 FIP). McHugh may move into a starting role. All of this is just waiting on their real answer, Forrest Whitley. He is due on the scene this season. A comparison would be Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. He is very talented and will make an impact once he gets his feet wet in the big leagues. The bullpen will benefit from Osuna and Pressly for the entire season making it deeper and more talented.

       I am high on HOU. I am using 108 as a starting point from 2018. However, this is tricky. I foresee them better on offense, but worse and less deep on the mound. Pitching matters and was the reason this team was so run differential strong in 2018. I don’t see that as the case this year. Winning 100 games is tough, but their division is not as strong this year. SEA went into sell-off and OAK has no pitchers. I think they could win near 100 games despite losing their pitchers. Their projection is only 95. I think that is a very large drop, but I will shade towards a lower end number of wins. I think 98 wins seems reasonable assumption for HOU.

Page 86