HOU sign stealing and
the possible ramifications
We can’t really get into the 2020 season without talking
about the sign-stealing scandal. HOU had their GM and their field manager
suspended for 1 year by MLB, then they were fired by the team’s owner. BOS lost
its field manager as a carryover effect. Their manager was previously HOU
bench coach and the main instigator. Also caught up in this, was the new NYM
manager as he was a prior player for HOU. This is the story of the 2017 HOU
Astros, 2018 BOS Red Sox. MLB investigated and found that HOU was cheating by
using technology to steal signs. Ultimately, we do not know the depth of this
as MLB has decided to keep the investigation details closed. MLB did find HOU
guilty and seemingly BOS as well. This article is not about that story. We all
know it already. This is about the effect that knowing when a slider is coming
what advantage does the hitter have.
Some context here is necessary for understanding. The first
part is to understand the pitch value. It measures the runs above or below average
by the type of pitch thrown. I have looked at this data for years. Here is some
context around what is the best run-saving pitch in baseball. It is the slider.
It has become the most runs saved above average pitch making it the number one
out pitch in baseball. Below are the last three years of data of fastballs and
sliders thrown by pitchers. I used the last three years due to 2017 being the
start date (HOU World Series) of when the cheating began. I used the fastball
as a reference due to it being the most thrown pitch in MLB.
2017
Fastball 4 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 18
teams
2018
Fastball 9 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 24
teams
2019
Fastball 7 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 16
teams
As you can see above, the slider is the most used out pitch
in MLB. This would also indicate that it is the toughest pitch in MLB. The reasoning is that each of the last 3 seasons, double-digit teams saved more
runs to average than any other pitch is thrown.
Looking at the offensive side, there are some amazing
results. HOU won in 2017, BOS won in 2018, and HOU was found to have cheated in
2019. They didn’t win it all, but they were in the game. I find that may not
have been all skillful. The cheating was specific to the slider or curveball.
Any pitch that breaks. The noises heard from the dugout where the signal to be
ready for a slower, moving, or curving pitch.
2017 HOU was #1 offense vs the
slider (only 3 teams were double-digit runs gained and only 4 teams were positive runs in total) and
#1 vs the curveball.
2018
BOS was #1 offense (only 2 teams were positive runs gained) vs the slider
2019
HOU was #1 offense and BOS#2 vs the slider (see the chart below as it is very telling)
It is almost embarrassing to see the disparity between the
HOU and BOS offense. They not only are the only teams in double-digit runs
gained above average, but they are also at minimum 6 times better than the 3rd
place team! To have an edge this large, it becomes less of a competition and
more of an exhibition. This kind of an edge allows these teams to view the
games like batting practice or to some degree like a home run derby.
It will be very difficult to understand the betting
ramifications of this until a couple of months into the season. I believe both
teams have quality talent but they obviously took advantage of knowing the
pitches. Undoubtedly, both of these teams will have reduced performance.
However, if they knew spinning balls were coming, they also know when a
fastball was coming too. Now, they will no longer know either. Both teams will
suffer offensively from this. The biggest question is how much?
The slider will become a tough pitch again for these 2
teams. If we assume they will become better than average but not the best in
baseball, we can assume HOU will lose 57.8 runs and BOS 44.6 runs just on one
pitch. Those calculations are based on the 15th ranked team (ATL
-19.8 runs) as an average. HOU was #2 against the fastball. Doing the same
exercise, it is possible they could lose another 73 runs! In total, they could
lose nearly 130 runs! Their run differential would drop to +150 or so. The
Washington Nationals had +149 (won 93 games). HOU also loses G.Cole and becomes
less stellar on the mound. This too reduces the run differential. It is very
possible that HOU will win less than 90 games!
Sign stealing has a quantitative effect. It is very possible
HOU does not win the AL West (OAK can pass them by). They will have to fight to
make it out of the Wild Card round. I think they catch a break if BOS trades
Betts, as BOS would become a team less likely to compete with them for those
spots. This will be a very tough season on them. There seems to be bad blood
amongst the other teams and players. HOU will endure a tough season having to
battle those heated feelings towards them from the players and fans. The
ramifications of their actions could make for a lost season. We will see.
