NFL example of +EV situation using Win Percentage

 

Using win percentage to find +EV situations in the NFL

Let’s use today’s game with Carolina traveling to Green Bay to illustrate how to find expected value positive situations.

This game is GB -8 at most places and opened -9.5. There are reasons that people are betting the Panthers, but we are looking at a simplified process to gauge the strength of the line. First, we need to get a Win Percentage in this game. How many times out of a 100 will GB beat CAR? There are many ways to calculate this depending on your models, algorithms, or handicapping; but I use Team Ranking’s model as everyone has access and it is rather good. I am using the Similar Games Analysis section so we can get historical input that resembles this matchup.

The picture will show a Green Bay win percentage of 91.1%! The result surprised me. It is very high!

This result indicates that CAR has little chance of winning the game. However, getting 8 points are good right? We need to convert the winning percentage into a money line, then convert that into a spread to find out. Let’s start with the money line conversion.

You will need a Spread Converter for this. I use this one from Sportsbookreview.com. The graphic shows 90% (89.97%) win percentage on the money line is -1641.9 and that converts to -13.5 -110 on a spread line.

The math shows that GB in this spot should be -13.5-point favorite against CAR today! This creates an expected value positive situation of 5.5 points to the line. The variance is a HUGE edge to GB side. If you make +EV bets, you should expect to WIN many of them. The real question is how do you know if you are making one? When risking your money, make smart choices! Using a methodology like this or at least one similar, you can calculate your edge and define it. There are very few handicappers that can define their edge and prove the +EV situation exists. Now you can too!

 

 

 

 

Houston Astros Sign Stealing in a view of wins

HOU sign stealing and the possible ramifications

We can’t really get into the 2020 season without talking about the sign-stealing scandal. HOU had their GM and their field manager suspended for 1 year by MLB, then they were fired by the team’s owner. BOS lost its field manager as a carryover effect. Their manager was previously HOU bench coach and the main instigator. Also caught up in this, was the new NYM manager as he was a prior player for HOU. This is the story of the 2017 HOU Astros, 2018 BOS Red Sox. MLB investigated and found that HOU was cheating by using technology to steal signs. Ultimately, we do not know the depth of this as MLB has decided to keep the investigation details closed. MLB did find HOU guilty and seemingly BOS as well. This article is not about that story. We all know it already. This is about the effect that knowing when a slider is coming what advantage does the hitter have.

Some context here is necessary for understanding. The first part is to understand the pitch value. It measures the runs above or below average by the type of pitch thrown. I have looked at this data for years. Here is some context around what is the best run-saving pitch in baseball. It is the slider. It has become the most runs saved above average pitch making it the number one out pitch in baseball. Below are the last three years of data of fastballs and sliders thrown by pitchers. I used the last three years due to 2017 being the start date (HOU World Series) of when the cheating began. I used the fastball as a reference due to it being the most thrown pitch in MLB.

                2017 Fastball 4 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 18 teams

                2018 Fastball 9 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 24 teams

                2019 Fastball 7 teams were double-digit runs saved better than average, Slider 16 teams

As you can see above, the slider is the most used out pitch in MLB. This would also indicate that it is the toughest pitch in MLB. The reasoning is that each of the last 3 seasons, double-digit teams saved more runs to average than any other pitch is thrown.

Looking at the offensive side, there are some amazing results. HOU won in 2017, BOS won in 2018, and HOU was found to have cheated in 2019. They didn’t win it all, but they were in the game. I find that may not have been all skillful. The cheating was specific to the slider or curveball. Any pitch that breaks. The noises heard from the dugout where the signal to be ready for a slower, moving, or curving pitch.

    2017 HOU was #1 offense vs the slider (only 3 teams were double-digit runs gained and          only 4 teams were positive runs in total) and #1 vs the curveball.

                2018 BOS was #1 offense (only 2 teams were positive runs gained) vs the slider

                2019 HOU was #1 offense and BOS#2 vs the slider (see the chart below as it is very                            telling)

               

It is almost embarrassing to see the disparity between the HOU and BOS offense. They not only are the only teams in double-digit runs gained above average, but they are also at minimum 6 times better than the 3^rd place team! To have an edge this large, it becomes less of a competition and more of an exhibition. This kind of an edge allows these teams to view the games like batting practice or to some degree like a home run derby.

It will be very difficult to understand the betting ramifications of this until a couple of months into the season. I believe both teams have quality talent but they obviously took advantage of knowing the pitches. Undoubtedly, both of these teams will have reduced performance. However, if they knew spinning balls were coming, they also know when a fastball was coming too. Now, they will no longer know either. Both teams will suffer offensively from this. The biggest question is how much?

The slider will become a tough pitch again for these 2 teams. If we assume they will become better than average but not the best in baseball, we can assume HOU will lose 57.8 runs and BOS 44.6 runs just on one pitch. Those calculations are based on the 15^th ranked team (ATL -19.8 runs) as an average. HOU was #2 against the fastball. Doing the same exercise, it is possible they could lose another 73 runs! In total, they could lose nearly 130 runs! Their run differential would drop to +150 or so. The Washington Nationals had +149 (won 93 games). HOU also loses G.Cole and becomes less stellar on the mound. This too reduces the run differential. It is very possible that HOU will win less than 90 games!

Sign stealing has a quantitative effect. It is very possible HOU does not win the AL West (OAK can pass them by). They will have to fight to make it out of the Wild Card round. I think they catch a break if BOS trades Betts, as BOS would become a team less likely to compete with them for those spots. This will be a very tough season on them. There seems to be bad blood amongst the other teams and players. HOU will endure a tough season having to battle those heated feelings towards them from the players and fans. The ramifications of their actions could make for a lost season. We will see.