AL East Team Previews
Boston Red Sox
The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games amassing the best record in baseball. They dominated the Dodgers in the World Series going 4-1. They really beat up the poor in the AL East. They were 16-3 vs BAL and 15-4 vs TOR. The AL East is competitive with 2 teams with 100 or more wins and the Rays won 90.
Last season there were 4 “Super Teams” heading into the season (BOS, NYY, HOU, LAD) and BOS lived up to their billing. They capitalized at home. They were 57-24 best in MLB. Their run differential at home was +146. BOS was the best against RHP. They were an astounding 87-38! HOU was 2nd with 66-36.
Mookie Betts won the AL MVP. He earned it. He had a 10.4 WAR, 185 wRC+, .438 OBP, 32HR, and he was 11.6
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def WAR. JD Martinez was late to sign in the offseason but was also in the MVP award conversation. He had a 5.9 WAR, 170 wRC+, .402 OBP, 43HR, 130 RBI with 111 Runs scored. Xander Bogaerts had a bounce-back season which turned out to be his best of his career. He had 4.9 WAR, 133 wRC+, with 103 RBI. They have 2 100+ RBI producers. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi earned 4.3 WAR, 122 wRC+, while scoring 103 runs. On many teams you will see one player that helps a team win, this team had 4 offensive stalwarts.
The 2019 team will get a long time Red Sox back in the lineup. Dustin Pedroia will again resume the 2nd base position. Steve Pearce was resigned so BOS will get a full year from him. There are no other changes. So, the question is whether this team will be able to hold off the pennant chasers for another season.
BOS scored more runs than any team in MLB last season with 876 which is 101 more runs than 2017. 2017 was the 1st season without David Ortiz, so maybe they have their way to overcome his production loss. I am willing to believe their offense will resemble 2018 and not 2017 for this year. However, the projections show a drop-in productivity. This should be expected as their main guys all had career-best seasons last year. It is not easy to out produce your career-best season back to back. Youth is the key to that and they have youth.
Here is a look into 2019.
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I will include 2018 totals for comparisons.
As you can see, there is a drop off at the top. Keep in mind that a 2.0 WAR is a solid everyday player and BOS will have 6! The projections also show an improved Rafael Devers. This offense will still be multifunctional and revolve around many run producing players which is what makes it unique. I expect the drop off not to affect the overall by very much.
The starting pitching could not have gone better for BOS in 2018. I suppose one could argue injuries could have made for a better season, but production from the
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first 4 guys were very good. They had Porcello and Price make 30 starts. Porcello went 17-7 and Price 16-7. Sale and Rodriguez made 27 starts each with Sale 12-4 and Rodriguez 13-5. Those 4 starters were 58-23. Sale was the dominant one with a WAR of 6.5. Both Porcello and Price had 2.7 WAR.
Sale had a FIP of 1.98 with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout percentage was 38.4%. His left on base percentage was 82.5%. He was truly an ACE. He did falter with a shoulder problem so he may not be the same this season. When returned from that injury, his fastball was several MPH lower.
The 2019 outlook is very good. Sale is projected to be the best pitcher in MLB with 6.5 WAR! No ill effects from the shoulder anticipated. Price and Eovaldi are ranked in the top 30. They will have 3 fifths of the rotation as elite with the best in the league. Follow that with Porcello and Rodriguez and there is quality in these starters. Their depth is not nearly as quality though. The fill-ins will struggle to win when called on.
The bullpen is where there are significant issues going into 2019. They were ranked 9th in WAR last season but have lost Joe Kelly who threw the most innings and has yet to replace or resign Craig Kimbrel. Between Kimbrel’s1.5 WAR and Kelly’s 0.7 WAR, the two account for roughly half accumulated WAR for their entire bullpen of 2018! Matt Barnes is the closer for now with Ryan Brasier as the setup guy. No one in this bullpen is slated for over 1.0 WAR, in fact, Barnes 0.8 is the largest projection. They
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will need the HOU approach where the bullpen throws the fewest inning in the league. That is not an easy ask in the AL East where there is offense.
The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018. The adjusted standings say they should have won 104 games. Their run differential was +262 only HOU was better. The HOU team should have won 108 games so 104 games are a valid starting point for 2019. It is very difficult to comp career seasons from your best players so I will adjust a little lower going into 2019 for that but not a dramatic amount due to how BOS plays. I believe their starters are good and should reproduce their success from 2018. They will also have to take a hit for the bullpen weakness. This is not a strength and currently ranks 21st coming into 2019. We are already have shown that 40% of the game relies upon this area. The projections call for 97 wins.
I will agree with the projections here. I can see plus or minus a couple of games, but 97 wins is a very good estimate. I can also see where a free agent signing or a trade to bolster this bullpen would be a wise move and would help solidify this team at the top.
